Primeira Liga · Mon · 18:45 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Benfica are priced at 1.42, implying around 70% win probability, making them strong favourites over Santa Clara in this Primeira Liga fixture.
Santa Clara's 8.25 price implies just over 12% win probability, reflecting the scale of the gap between the two sides according to the market.
The draw at 4.55 implies roughly 22% probability, a secondary alternative but still well behind Benfica's standing as favourites.
The recommended Under 2.5 goals bet at 1.97 carries an implied probability near 51%, but the model's confidence of 48% and a -5.4% edge suggest it is not a standout value play.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | 13.4% | 7.48 |
| 1-1 | 11.7% | 8.54 |
| 0-2 | 10.8% | 9.25 |
| 1-2 | 9.5% | 10.56 |
| 0-0 | 8.3% | 12.09 |
| 1-0 | 7.2% | 13.81 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 0.88 and 1.62. These six scorelines cover 61% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (X) | 4.80 | +12.2% | 23% | 63 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
W/D/L shown from Santa Clara's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · SC | X | 2 · BEN |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tipico | 8.20 | 4.80 | 1.35 |
| Marathon Bet | 7.70 | 4.55 | 1.38 |
| Betsson | 7.30 | 4.30 | 1.40 |
| Nordic Bet | 7.30 | 4.30 | 1.40 |
| 888sport | 7.00 | 4.40 | 1.40 |
| William Hill | 7.00 | 4.40 | 1.40 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Primeira Liga leaders Benfica head to the Azores as heavy favourites against Santa Clara, and the match-result market leaves little doubt about how one-sided this is expected to be. Benfica's price of 1.42 with Coolbet implies a win probability of roughly 70%, while Santa Clara's 8.25 reflects just over 12% and the draw at 4.55 sits near 22%. Those numbers point to a contest where the home side is expected to defend and absorb rather than dictate play. Away from the outright market, our model steers toward the goals markets instead of the result itself, flagging Under 2.5 goals at 1.97 as its recommended angle. That price implies roughly 51% probability, though the model's own confidence sits a touch lower at 48%, giving a modest negative edge rather than a clear-cut value signal.
Verdict: Benfica are strongly favoured by the market, but the suggested angle is goals-based rather than backing the outright winner. Under 2.5 at 1.97 is a reasonable, moderate-risk option given its near 51% implied probability, though the model's own confidence and negative edge mean it should not be treated as a high-conviction selection.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Oct 19:15 | Braga v Gil Vicente | 1.62 | 3.90 | 6.40 |
| 23 Oct 19:45 | Vitória SC v CS Maritimo | 1.75 | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| 24 Oct 14:30 | CF Estrela v Casa Pia | 1.85 | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| 24 Oct 17:00 | Alverca v Arouca | 2.20 | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| 24 Oct 19:30 | Gil Vicente v FC Porto | 8.00 | 4.60 | 1.44 |
| 25 Oct 15:30 | Estoril v Moreirense FC | 1.85 | 3.70 | 4.05 |
| 25 Oct 18:00 | Nacional v Braga | 7.00 | 4.50 | 1.50 |
| 25 Oct 18:00 | Rio Ave FC v Famalicão | 4.10 | 3.50 | 1.85 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +16 | 24 |
| 2 | SL Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +4 | 14 |
| 6 | Acad. Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 14 |
| 7 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 11 |
| 8 | Gil Vicente | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 11 |
| 9 | Braga | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Amadora | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Marítimo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicão | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 15 | Vitória SC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | CD Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril Praia | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.00, with a 48% confidence rating.
Benfica are clear favourites, priced at 1.42 with Coolbet, which implies a win probability of around 70%. Santa Clara, at 8.25, are seen as much less likely to win this Primeira Liga meeting.
The draw is available at 4.55 with Marathon Bet, implying a probability of roughly 22%, positioning it as a distant second possibility behind a Benfica win.
No standout value picks were flagged against the match-result market. The model instead highlights Under 2.5 goals at 1.97, though this comes with a slight negative edge of -5.4% and 48% confidence, so it should be viewed as a moderate rather than high-value suggestion.
Santa Clara vs Benfica takes place Mon · 18:45 in the Primeira Liga.
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