English ⚽ Ekstraklasa 🕒 9 Oct 2026
Our tip
Under 3.25 goals
Odds
1.88
LostResult
1-4Final score
-1.00uProfit
57%Pre-match conf.
0%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at Pinnacle
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Raków Częstochowa are priced as favourites at 2.19, implying roughly 45.7 percent win probability, compared to 34.6 percent for GKS Katowice at 2.89
02
The draw at 3.94 implies about a 25.4 percent chance, a typical margin between favourite and underdog in this market
03
The recommended Over 3.0 goals bet at 1.83 implies a 54.6 percent probability, but the model's own confidence is 52 percent, giving a negative value edge of about -4.67 percent
04
No value picks cleared the threshold in the match-result market, suggesting the outright prices are viewed as fairly efficient relative to the model
Team form
RC Raków Częstochowa LLLWL
9 Oct 26 vs GKS Katowice 1-4
19 Sept 26 @ Korona Kielce 2-3
15 Sept 26 vs Zagłębie Lubin 2-3
11 Sept 26 vs Motor Lublin 2-1
6 Sept 26 @ Lech Poznań 0-1
GK GKS Katowice WWLLW
9 Oct 26 @ Raków Częstochowa 4-1
19 Sept 26 vs Cracovia Kraków 3-2
12 Sept 26 @ Zagłębie Lubin 1-2
4 Sept 26 @ Piast Gliwice 0-3
30 Aug 26 @ Górnik Zabrze 3-2
Head-to-head: Raków Częstochowa v GKS Katowice
L 9 Oct 26
Raków Częstochowa 1-4 GKS KatowiceEkstraklasa
W/D/L shown from Raków Częstochowa's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice: pre-match preview
Raków Częstochowa host GKS Katowice in an Ekstraklasa fixture where the market leans clearly toward the home side. Pinnacle's odds of 2.19 on Raków imply a win probability of roughly 45.7 percent, well ahead of GKS Katowice's 2.89 price, which corresponds to about 34.6 percent. The draw sits at 3.94, translating to a 25.4 percent chance, a fairly standard spread for a domestic league match with a clear but not overwhelming favourite. Rather than picking a side in the match-result market, our model turns to the goals market, recommending Over 3.0 goals at 1.83. That price implies a bookmaker probability near 54.6 percent, against which the model's own confidence sits slightly lower at 52 percent, producing a modest negative edge rather than a standout value angle.
Verdict: The recommended Over 3.0 goals play at 1.83 is a moderate-confidence selection rather than a clear value edge, since the model's 52 percent estimate trails the market-implied 54.6 percent. It reflects a reasonable read on scoring potential but carries a slightly unfavourable edge, so stake sizing should stay conservative.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 1-4, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Upcoming Ekstraklasa fixtures
All Ekstraklasa tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 16:00 | Wieczysta Kraków v Raków Częstochowa | 2.20 | 4.04 | 3.04 |
| 16 Oct 18:30 | Widzew Łódź v Wisła Kraków | 2.35 | 3.75 | 2.91 |
| 17 Oct 12:45 | Motor Lublin v Śląsk Wrocław | 1.97 | 4.00 | 3.65 |
| 17 Oct 15:30 | GKS Katowice v Pogoń Szczecin | 2.04 | 4.00 | 3.50 |
| 17 Oct 18:15 | Cracovia Kraków v Legia Warszawa | 2.90 | 3.50 | 2.50 |
| 18 Oct 10:15 | Górnik Zabrze v Piast Gliwice | 1.67 | 4.03 | 5.00 |
| 18 Oct 12:45 | Zagłębie Lubin v Jagiellonia Białystok | 2.82 | 3.60 | 2.45 |
| 18 Oct 15:30 | Lech Poznań v Korona Kielce | 1.51 | 4.75 | 6.00 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice?+
Our tip was Under 3.25 goals at odds of 1.88.
Who is favourite in the Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice match?+
Raków Częstochowa are the market favourites at odds of 2.19, implying about a 45.7 percent win probability, compared with 2.89 for GKS Katowice, which implies roughly 34.6 percent.
What are the draw odds for this Ekstraklasa fixture?+
The draw is priced at 3.94 with Pinnacle, implying an approximate 25.4 percent probability.
Is there value in betting on this match according to the model?+
The match-result market showed no picks above the value threshold. The model's featured recommendation is Over 3.0 goals at 1.83, though this carries a slight negative edge of about -4.67 percent rather than a clear value advantage.
Did the tip win?+
The tip lost — final score 1-4 (-1.00u at flat stakes).