Serie A · Mon · 18:45 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Torino's 2.73 price implies roughly 36.6% probability, only marginally ahead of Parma's 34.7% from odds of 2.88, showing a near-even match-result market
The draw at 3.31 implies about 30.2%, the lowest of the three outcomes but close enough to keep all three live
No match-result selection cleared the site's value threshold, so no back-to-win pick is being pushed for this fixture
The recommended play is Under 2.25 goals at 1.88, carrying a model-implied confidence of 55% and a calculated value edge of 3.46%
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.3% | 7.51 |
| 0-1 | 12.4% | 8.06 |
| 1-0 | 11.4% | 8.80 |
| 0-0 | 10.6% | 9.44 |
| 1-2 | 7.8% | 12.82 |
| 0-2 | 7.3% | 13.76 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.07 and 1.17. These six scorelines cover 63% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Parma's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · PAR | X | 2 · TOR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 3.20 | 3.10 | 2.62 |
| Matchbook | 3.20 | 3.10 | 2.62 |
| 1xBet | 3.25 | 3.17 | 2.54 |
| Coolbet | 3.17 | 3.03 | 2.60 |
| Pinnacle | 3.17 | 3.03 | 2.58 |
| Unibet (NL) | 3.20 | 3.10 | 2.50 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Parma host Torino in a Serie A fixture where the match-result market is unusually tight. The best available prices - Parma at 2.88, the draw at 3.31, and Torino at 2.73 - point to Torino as a marginal favourite, with the draw priced as the least likely single outcome but still very much in play given the closeness of the two team prices. Converting those odds into implied probability, Torino sits around 36.6%, Parma close behind at roughly 34.7%, and the draw at about 30.2%. With no side clearly dominant, our model's attention shifts away from the result market entirely and toward the total-goals line, where an Under 2.25 goals selection at 1.88 with Pinnacle is flagged as the recommended angle for this Serie A meeting.
Verdict: With the win markets essentially split three ways, the clearer angle here is the Under 2.25 goals price of 1.88, backed by a modest 3.46% edge and 55% model confidence. It is a measured, low-goals lean rather than a high-conviction call, so stake sizing should reflect that moderate edge.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 18:45 | Frosinone v Sassuolo | 2.66 | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| 17 Oct 13:00 | Venezia v Napoli | 5.20 | 4.32 | 1.74 |
| 17 Oct 16:00 | Bologna v Inter Milan | 6.15 | 4.30 | 1.65 |
| 17 Oct 18:45 | AS Roma v Genoa | 1.41 | 5.30 | 9.05 |
| 18 Oct 10:30 | Udinese v Lecce | 1.95 | 3.65 | 4.60 |
| 18 Oct 13:00 | Fiorentina v Como | 3.70 | 3.81 | 2.12 |
| 18 Oct 16:00 | AC Milan v Atalanta BC | 1.93 | 3.86 | 4.40 |
| 18 Oct 18:45 | Juventus v Lazio | 1.73 | 4.04 | 5.71 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +10 | 16 |
| 2 | Lazio | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 16 |
| 3 | Roma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +11 | 14 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 13 |
| 5 | Milan | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +6 | 12 |
| 6 | Juventus | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 11 |
| 7 | Como 1907 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 11 |
| 8 | Napoli | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +4 | 10 |
| 9 | Frosinone | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 10 |
| 10 | Atalanta | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Torino | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Lecce | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 14 | Bologna | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Udinese | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Genoa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Parma | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 20 | Venezia FC | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 2.0 goals at odds of 2.09, with a 47% confidence rating.
Torino are the marginal favourite at 2.73, implying about 36.6% probability, just ahead of Parma at 2.88 (roughly 34.7%). The gap is small enough that neither side is strongly favoured.
The best available draw price is 3.31, which implies around 30.2% probability, the lowest of the three match-result outcomes but not far behind either team.
No match-result selection met the site's value threshold for this fixture. The flagged angle instead is a goals market bet, Under 2.25 goals at 1.88, which carries a 3.46% calculated edge.
Parma vs Torino takes place Mon · 18:45 in the Serie A.
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