English ⚽ Brasileirão 🕒 11 Oct 2026
Our tip
Palmeiras to win
Odds
1.69
WonResult
4-1Final score
+0.69uProfit
62%Pre-match conf.
0%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at Betfair
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Palmeiras are priced at 1.48, implying roughly a 68% chance of victory according to the market
02
Corinthians drift out to 6.75, suggesting the market sees only around a 15% chance of an away win
03
The draw at 4.1 implies close to a 24% probability, keeping it as a live secondary outcome
04
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.93 carries a -6.07% value edge against the model's 49% confidence, indicating no clear pricing advantage
Team form
PAL Palmeiras WWDWD
11 Oct 26 vs Corinthians 4-1
9 Oct 26 vs Bahia 1-0
20 Sept 26 @ Grêmio 0-0
12 Sept 26 vs São Paulo 2-0
6 Sept 26 @ Botafogo 0-0
COR Corinthians LLLLL
11 Oct 26 @ Palmeiras 1-4
7 Oct 26 @ Internacional 1-2
20 Sept 26 vs Fluminense 1-3
13 Sept 26 @ Flamengo 1-2
6 Sept 26 vs Chapecoense 1-2
Head-to-head: Palmeiras v Corinthians
Full H2H history → W 11 Oct 26
Palmeiras 4-1 CorinthiansBrasileirão
D 12 Apr 26
Corinthians 0-0 PalmeirasBrasileirão
D 31 Aug 25
Corinthians 1-1 PalmeirasBrasileirão
W 12 Apr 25
Palmeiras 2-0 CorinthiansBrasileirão
W/D/L shown from Palmeiras's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Palmeiras vs Corinthians: pre-match preview
Palmeiras host Corinthians in a Brasileirão derby where the betting market leaves little doubt about the pecking order. Best available prices have Palmeiras at 1.48, Corinthians out at 6.75, and the draw at 4.1, which translates to roughly a 68% implied chance for the home side, about 24% for a draw, and only around 15% for an away win once the bookmaker margin is factored in. Rather than backing the outright winner, our model points toward the goals market, recommending Over 2.5 goals at 1.93. That price implies a near 52% chance of three or more goals, close to the model's own 49% confidence read, meaning this angle is offered without a strong statistical edge attached. It is a fixture where the scoreline path looks more balanced for punters than the match-result market itself.
Verdict: Palmeiras are strong market favourites, but the recommended play targets total goals rather than the result. Over 2.5 goals at 1.93 sits close to the model's own probability estimate with a slightly negative edge, so this should be viewed as a fair-priced option rather than a standout value bet. Stake with care.
How it settled: the tip landed — the match finished 4-1, for a flat-stake return of +0.69 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Upcoming Brasileirão fixtures
All Brasileirão tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 23:00 | Mirassol v Internacional | 2.30 | 3.60 | 3.37 |
| 17 Oct 21:00 | Botafogo v Chapecoense | 1.42 | 5.40 | 8.26 |
| 17 Oct 21:30 | Atletico Mineiro v Coritiba | 1.56 | 4.43 | 6.75 |
| 17 Oct 22:30 | Atletico Paranaense v Palmeiras | 3.35 | 3.50 | 2.35 |
| 18 Oct 00:00 | Sao Paulo v Vasco da Gama | 2.22 | 3.62 | 3.55 |
| 18 Oct 19:00 | Fluminense v Santos | 2.08 | 3.63 | 3.65 |
| 18 Oct 19:00 | Grêmio v Cruzeiro | 3.10 | 3.60 | 2.38 |
| 18 Oct 21:30 | Bahia v Flamengo | 3.37 | 3.85 | 2.10 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Campeonato Brasileiro Série A standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | +33 | 64 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | +30 | 63 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | +14 | 53 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +11 | 51 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | +8 | 49 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | +2 | 48 |
| 7 | Mineiro | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | +6 | 47 |
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | +1 | 42 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | +3 | 40 |
| 10 | São Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 | Vitória | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 | Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 | Vasco da Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 | Grêmio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for Palmeiras vs Corinthians?+
Our tip was Palmeiras to win at odds of 1.69.
Who is favourite in Palmeiras vs Corinthians?+
Palmeiras are clear favourites according to the odds, priced at 1.48, which implies close to a 68% chance of winning compared with Corinthians at 6.75.
What is the draw priced at in this Brasileirao match?+
The draw is available at 4.1, implying an approximate 24% probability based on the market's pricing.
Is there value in this fixture according to the model?+
The listed value picks show none above the threshold for the match result, and the recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.93 carries a -6.07% edge, so it should be treated as a reasonably priced option rather than a strong value bet.
Did the tip win?+
The tip won — final score 4-1 (+0.69u at flat stakes).