Brasileirão · Sat · 21:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Palmeiras are priced at 1.59, implying roughly 63 percent win probability and clear home favouritism.
Bragantino-SP's 5.98 price implies only about 17 percent, reflecting a sizeable gap between the two sides.
The draw at 4.08 implies around 25 percent, a live but secondary outcome in the market's view.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.88 carries a -4.04 percent value edge, indicating the market price is close to fair rather than offering a clear advantage.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | 13.9% | 7.19 |
| 1-0 | 13.8% | 7.26 |
| 3-0 | 9.4% | 10.68 |
| 2-1 | 9.3% | 10.80 |
| 1-1 | 9.2% | 10.91 |
| 0-0 | 6.8% | 14.64 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 2.02 and 0.67. These six scorelines cover 62% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Palmeiras's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · PAL | X | 2 · BRA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.59 | 4.08 | 5.98 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.54 | 3.95 | 5.80 |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.54 | 3.85 | 5.80 |
| 888sport | 1.57 | 3.75 | 5.50 |
| William Hill | 1.57 | 3.75 | 5.50 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.48 | 3.68 | 5.50 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Palmeiras host Bragantino-SP in a Brasileirão fixture where the betting market leaves little doubt about the expected outcome. Best available odds price Palmeiras at 1.59, which implies a win probability of roughly 63 percent, making them clear favourites on home soil. Bragantino-SP, at 5.98, are given only around 17 percent of the implied probability, while the draw sits at 4.08, translating to about 25 percent. Away from the match-result market, the model's attention shifts to goals, recommending Over 2.5 at 1.88. That price implies a goal probability near 53 percent, though the model's own confidence reading of 51 percent and a slightly negative value edge of -4.04 percent suggest this is not a strong statistical edge, just a marginally favoured lean. Bettors weighing this fixture should treat the recommendation as one data point among several, not a certainty, and size any stake with that caution in mind.
Verdict: The market strongly favours Palmeiras, but the standout angle is the Over 2.5 goals pick at 1.88. With only 51 percent model confidence and a negative value edge, it is a modest lean rather than a high-conviction play, best approached with measured, responsible staking.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 23:00 | Mirassol v Internacional | 2.30 | 3.60 | 3.37 |
| 17 Oct 21:00 | Botafogo v Chapecoense | 1.42 | 5.40 | 8.26 |
| 17 Oct 21:30 | Atletico Mineiro v Coritiba | 1.56 | 4.43 | 6.75 |
| 17 Oct 22:30 | Atletico Paranaense v Palmeiras | 3.35 | 3.50 | 2.35 |
| 18 Oct 00:00 | Sao Paulo v Vasco da Gama | 2.22 | 3.62 | 3.55 |
| 18 Oct 19:00 | Fluminense v Santos | 2.08 | 3.63 | 3.65 |
| 18 Oct 19:00 | Grêmio v Cruzeiro | 3.10 | 3.60 | 2.38 |
| 18 Oct 21:30 | Bahia v Flamengo | 3.37 | 3.85 | 2.10 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | +33 | 64 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | +30 | 63 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | +14 | 53 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +11 | 51 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | +8 | 49 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | +2 | 48 |
| 7 | Mineiro | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | +6 | 47 |
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | +1 | 42 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | +3 | 40 |
| 10 | São Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 | Vitória | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 | Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 | Vasco da Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 | Grêmio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.88, with a 51% confidence rating.
Palmeiras are clear favourites, priced at 1.59, which implies around a 63 percent chance of victory according to the market.
The draw is priced at 4.08, implying roughly a 25 percent probability based on current market data.
The only flagged pick is Over 2.5 goals at 1.88, but it shows a slightly negative value edge of -4.04 percent and 51 percent model confidence, so it is a marginal rather than strong value opportunity.
Palmeiras vs Bragantino-SP takes place Sat · 21:30 in the Brasileirão.
English 
