Serie A · Sat · 16:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Roma are priced shortest at 2.52 (about 39.7% implied probability), making them the market's slight favourite over Napoli at 2.94 (about 34.0%).
The draw at 3.60 implies roughly 27.8%, keeping all three outcomes within a relatively narrow probability band.
The combined implied probabilities exceed 100% by about 1.5 points, reflecting standard bookmaker margin rather than a true toss-up.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals price of 1.93 implies roughly 51.8% confidence, yet carries a slight negative value edge of -1.54%, meaning it's not flagged as a clear market inefficiency.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.1% | 7.66 |
| 0-1 | 12.0% | 8.33 |
| 1-0 | 10.2% | 9.78 |
| 0-0 | 9.4% | 10.64 |
| 1-2 | 8.3% | 12.00 |
| 0-2 | 7.6% | 13.07 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.09 and 1.28. These six scorelines cover 61% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Napoli's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · NAP | X | 2 · AR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.04 | 3.60 | 2.45 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.88 | 3.55 | 2.45 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.88 | 3.55 | 2.45 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.95 | 3.50 | 2.38 |
| Pinnacle | 2.91 | 3.52 | 2.37 |
| Betsson | 2.98 | 3.40 | 2.35 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Napoli host AS Roma in a Serie A fixture where the betting market leans toward the away side without making them overwhelming favourites. Best prices have Roma at 2.52, Napoli at 2.94, and the draw at 3.60, which translates to roughly 40% implied probability for Roma, 34% for Napoli, and 28% for a draw. That's a fairly tight spread, suggesting bookmakers see this as a competitive, closely matched contest rather than a clear mismatch. Away from the result market, the highlighted angle is the total-goals line, with Over 2.5 goals priced at 1.93, implying a market probability near 51.8% and carrying a modest negative value edge of -1.54% against the model's own estimate. That nuance matters for anyone weighing stake size on this selection.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 1.93 is the model's pick, backed by just over 51% implied confidence, but the negative value edge means it isn't a standout market mismatch. It's a reasonable, moderate-risk selection rather than a high-conviction one, so sensible staking is advised.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 18:45 | Frosinone v Sassuolo | 2.66 | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| 17 Oct 13:00 | Venezia v Napoli | 5.20 | 4.32 | 1.74 |
| 17 Oct 16:00 | Bologna v Inter Milan | 6.15 | 4.30 | 1.65 |
| 17 Oct 18:45 | AS Roma v Genoa | 1.41 | 5.30 | 9.05 |
| 18 Oct 10:30 | Udinese v Lecce | 1.95 | 3.65 | 4.60 |
| 18 Oct 13:00 | Fiorentina v Como | 3.70 | 3.81 | 2.12 |
| 18 Oct 16:00 | AC Milan v Atalanta BC | 1.93 | 3.86 | 4.40 |
| 18 Oct 18:45 | Juventus v Lazio | 1.73 | 4.04 | 5.71 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +10 | 16 |
| 2 | Lazio | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 16 |
| 3 | Roma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +11 | 14 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 13 |
| 5 | Milan | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +6 | 12 |
| 6 | Juventus | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 11 |
| 7 | Como 1907 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 11 |
| 8 | Napoli | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +4 | 10 |
| 9 | Frosinone | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 10 |
| 10 | Atalanta | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Torino | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Lecce | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 14 | Bologna | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Udinese | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Genoa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Parma | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 20 | Venezia FC | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.93, with a 51% confidence rating.
The market makes AS Roma the slight favourite at odds of 2.52, implying about 39.7% probability, compared with Napoli at 2.94 (around 34.0%).
The draw is available at 3.60, which implies roughly a 27.8% chance according to the market.
No standout value picks were identified against the market consensus. The highlighted Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.93 is the model's recommendation, though it actually carries a small negative value edge of -1.54%, so it should be seen as a moderate rather than high-value selection.
Napoli vs AS Roma takes place Sat · 16:00 in the Serie A.
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