Brasileirão · Sat · 19:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Mirassol are market favourites at 2.28, implying close to 44% win probability, the shortest price of the three outcomes.
Sao Paulo (3.30) and the draw (3.33) are priced almost identically, both sitting near the 30% implied probability mark.
The combined overround across the three match-result prices is roughly 4%, typical bookmaker margin rather than a market anomaly.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 2.13 carries a -3.93% value edge against the model's threshold, meaning it is not flagged as a clear value opportunity despite being the standout pick available.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 13.4% | 7.45 |
| 1-1 | 12.7% | 7.91 |
| 0-0 | 9.5% | 10.48 |
| 2-0 | 9.4% | 10.58 |
| 0-1 | 9.0% | 11.12 |
| 2-1 | 8.9% | 11.24 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.41 and 0.94. These six scorelines cover 63% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Mirassol's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · MIR | X | 2 · SP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.28 | 3.33 | 3.30 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.21 | 3.22 | 3.20 |
| MyBookie.ag | 2.20 | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| 888sport | 2.20 | 3.10 | 3.10 |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 3.10 | 3.10 |
| Betclic (FR) | 2.08 | 3.08 | 3.08 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Mirassol host Sao Paulo in a Brasileirão fixture where the betting market leans toward the home side without making them an overwhelming favourite. Best available prices put Mirassol at 2.28, Sao Paulo at 3.30, and the draw at 3.33, which translates to roughly 44% implied probability for a Mirassol win, around 30% for Sao Paulo, and just over 30% for a draw. That's a fairly tight spread between the away win and the draw, suggesting bookmakers see this as a competitive, far-from-one-sided contest. Away from the match-result market, our model flags Over 2.5 goals at 2.13 as its recommended angle, implying a confidence level of 45% for that outcome. Notably, this pick carries a slightly negative value edge versus the model's own benchmark, so it should be treated as a modest lean rather than a strong signal. Bettors should weigh the pricing carefully and stake according to their own risk tolerance.
Verdict: The Over 2.5 goals pick at 2.13 reflects a 45% model confidence level but comes with a slightly negative value edge, so it is a reasonable rather than compelling angle. With no standout value picks in the match-result market either, this fixture looks close to fairly priced, warranting cautious, measured staking.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 23:00 | Mirassol v Internacional | 2.30 | 3.60 | 3.37 |
| 17 Oct 21:00 | Botafogo v Chapecoense | 1.42 | 5.40 | 8.26 |
| 17 Oct 21:30 | Atletico Mineiro v Coritiba | 1.56 | 4.43 | 6.75 |
| 17 Oct 22:30 | Atletico Paranaense v Palmeiras | 3.35 | 3.50 | 2.35 |
| 18 Oct 00:00 | Sao Paulo v Vasco da Gama | 2.22 | 3.62 | 3.55 |
| 18 Oct 19:00 | Fluminense v Santos | 2.08 | 3.63 | 3.65 |
| 18 Oct 19:00 | Grêmio v Cruzeiro | 3.10 | 3.60 | 2.38 |
| 18 Oct 21:30 | Bahia v Flamengo | 3.37 | 3.85 | 2.10 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | +33 | 64 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | +30 | 63 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | +14 | 53 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +11 | 51 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | +8 | 49 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | +2 | 48 |
| 7 | Mineiro | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | +6 | 47 |
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | +1 | 42 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | +3 | 40 |
| 10 | São Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 | Vitória | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 | Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 | Vasco da Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 | Grêmio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.13, with a 45% confidence rating.
Mirassol are priced as favourites at 2.28, implying close to a 44% win probability, ahead of Sao Paulo at 3.30 and the draw at 3.33.
The draw is available at 3.33, which implies a probability of just over 30%, almost identical to Sao Paulo's implied chance of winning.
No standout value picks were identified in the match-result market. The model's recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 2.13 has a 45% implied confidence but shows a slightly negative value edge of -3.93%, so it should be viewed as a lean rather than a strong value play.
Mirassol vs Sao Paulo takes place Sat · 19:30 in the Brasileirão.
English 
