Serie A · Sun · 17:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Juventus are priced at 1.45 versus 7.8 for Lecce, a gap implying roughly 69 percent versus 13 percent win probability for the two sides.
The draw at 4.4 implies about a 23 percent chance, keeping it a live but secondary outcome behind a home upset or away win.
The recommended Over 2.75 goals bet at 2.08 carries an implied probability near 48 percent against a 46 percent model confidence, producing a slightly negative value edge of -4.96 percent.
No match-result or alternative selections currently exceed the site's value threshold, meaning this fixture lacks a standout value pick by the model's own criteria.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | 15.6% | 6.42 |
| 0-2 | 12.5% | 8.00 |
| 1-1 | 11.3% | 8.83 |
| 0-0 | 9.7% | 10.32 |
| 1-2 | 9.1% | 10.99 |
| 1-0 | 7.0% | 14.18 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 0.73 and 1.61. These six scorelines cover 65% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Lecce's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · LEC | X | 2 · JUV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 7.70 | 4.53 | 1.50 |
| Unibet (SE) | 8.50 | 4.40 | 1.44 |
| Unibet (NL) | 8.50 | 4.40 | 1.44 |
| Marathon Bet | 7.50 | 4.40 | 1.46 |
| Betsson | 7.80 | 4.35 | 1.44 |
| Pinnacle | 7.92 | 4.23 | 1.44 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Juventus travel to face Lecce in Serie A as clear market favourites, with the Bianconeri priced at 1.45 for the win, a price that implies a win probability of roughly 69 percent. Lecce, by contrast, are available at 7.8, pointing to an implied chance of around 13 percent, while the draw sits at 4.4, suggesting bookmakers see a stalemate as roughly a one-in-four scenario after accounting for overround. Rather than backing the outright result, the highlighted angle here is a goals market: Over 2.75 goals at 2.08, which the model flags as its recommended play even though its own confidence reading of 46 percent sits slightly below the 48 percent implied by that price. No side of the match-result or goals markets currently clears the site's value threshold, so this preview leans on probability context rather than a strong edge claim.
Verdict: The model points to Over 2.75 goals at 2.08 as the most notable angle, but its own numbers show a small negative edge, meaning the price is marginally shorter than the model's estimated probability. This is a moderate-risk, data-driven lean rather than a confident value call, so stake sizing should reflect that uncertainty.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 18:45 | Frosinone v Sassuolo | 2.66 | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| 17 Oct 13:00 | Venezia v Napoli | 5.20 | 4.32 | 1.74 |
| 17 Oct 16:00 | Bologna v Inter Milan | 6.15 | 4.30 | 1.65 |
| 17 Oct 18:45 | AS Roma v Genoa | 1.41 | 5.30 | 9.05 |
| 18 Oct 10:30 | Udinese v Lecce | 1.95 | 3.65 | 4.60 |
| 18 Oct 13:00 | Fiorentina v Como | 3.70 | 3.81 | 2.12 |
| 18 Oct 16:00 | AC Milan v Atalanta BC | 1.93 | 3.86 | 4.40 |
| 18 Oct 18:45 | Juventus v Lazio | 1.73 | 4.04 | 5.71 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +10 | 16 |
| 2 | Lazio | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 16 |
| 3 | Roma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +11 | 14 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 13 |
| 5 | Milan | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +6 | 12 |
| 6 | Juventus | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 11 |
| 7 | Como 1907 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 11 |
| 8 | Napoli | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +4 | 10 |
| 9 | Frosinone | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 10 |
| 10 | Atalanta | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Torino | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Lecce | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 14 | Bologna | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Udinese | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Genoa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Parma | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 20 | Venezia FC | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 2.75 goals at odds of 1.78, with a 54% confidence rating.
Juventus are strongly favoured by the market at odds of 1.45, which implies roughly a 69 percent chance of victory, compared to about 13 percent implied for Lecce at 7.8.
The draw is priced at 4.4 with Tipico, implying an approximate 23 percent probability of the match ending level.
No selection currently clears the site's value threshold; the closest option is Over 2.75 goals at 2.08, but it shows a slight negative edge of -4.96 percent against the model's 46 percent confidence reading.
Lecce vs Juventus takes place Sun · 17:00 in the Serie A.
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