Serie A · Sat · 18:45 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Lazio's 1.64 price implies roughly a 61% chance of victory, the strongest signal in this match's odds set.
Parma's 6.5 price implies only around 15% winning probability, reflecting a sizeable gap between the two sides according to the market.
The draw at 4.06 (about 25% implied) is priced higher than a Parma win, suggesting bookmakers see a stalemate as more plausible than an away victory.
The recommended Under 2.25 goals bet at 1.97 carries a 10.63% value edge and 56% model confidence, the only pick in this preview clearing the value threshold.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 17.8% | 5.62 |
| 0-0 | 12.9% | 7.74 |
| 2-0 | 12.2% | 8.17 |
| 1-1 | 11.9% | 8.39 |
| 0-1 | 8.7% | 11.55 |
| 2-1 | 8.2% | 12.20 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.38 and 0.67. These six scorelines cover 72% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Lazio's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · LAZ | X | 2 · PAR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.58 | 4.33 | 6.64 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.62 | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.62 | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.53 | 4.20 | 6.45 |
| Betsson | 1.52 | 4.15 | 6.60 |
| Pinnacle | 1.53 | 4.09 | 6.33 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Lazio host Parma in a Serie A fixture where the market leaves little doubt about the expected outcome. Lazio are priced at 1.64 with 1xBet, which implies a win probability of roughly 61%, making them clear favourites over a Parma side available at a generous 6.5 with Tipico, suggesting the market gives the visitors only around 15% to come away with all three points. The draw sits at 4.06, implying roughly 25%, a reasonable middle ground given the gap in class suggested by the prices. Away from the match-result market, our model's attention turns to the goals market, where Under 2.25 goals at 1.97 with Pinnacle stands out, carrying a modelled confidence of 56% and a value edge of just over 10%. That combination points to a contest the market expects to be controlled by the home side without necessarily being high-scoring.
Verdict: The numbers favour Lazio comfortably, but the standout angle here is goals, not the match result. Under 2.25 at 1.97 offers a modest, data-backed edge with 56% model confidence - worth considering as a measured selection rather than a high-certainty play, given no bet in football is without risk.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 18:45 | Frosinone v Sassuolo | 2.66 | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| 17 Oct 13:00 | Venezia v Napoli | 5.20 | 4.32 | 1.74 |
| 17 Oct 16:00 | Bologna v Inter Milan | 6.15 | 4.30 | 1.65 |
| 17 Oct 18:45 | AS Roma v Genoa | 1.41 | 5.30 | 9.05 |
| 18 Oct 10:30 | Udinese v Lecce | 1.95 | 3.65 | 4.60 |
| 18 Oct 13:00 | Fiorentina v Como | 3.70 | 3.81 | 2.12 |
| 18 Oct 16:00 | AC Milan v Atalanta BC | 1.93 | 3.86 | 4.40 |
| 18 Oct 18:45 | Juventus v Lazio | 1.73 | 4.04 | 5.71 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +10 | 16 |
| 2 | Lazio | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 16 |
| 3 | Roma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +11 | 14 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 13 |
| 5 | Milan | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +6 | 12 |
| 6 | Juventus | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 11 |
| 7 | Como 1907 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 11 |
| 8 | Napoli | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +4 | 10 |
| 9 | Frosinone | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 10 |
| 10 | Atalanta | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Torino | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Lecce | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 14 | Bologna | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Udinese | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Genoa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Parma | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 20 | Venezia FC | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.25 goals at odds of 1.76, with a 55% confidence rating.
Lazio are clear favourites according to the odds, priced at 1.64 with 1xBet, which implies around a 61% chance of winning.
The draw is available at 4.06 with 1xBet, implying an approximate 25% probability, higher than Parma's implied chance of winning outright.
Our model did not flag any match-result value picks above threshold, but it does highlight Under 2.25 goals at 1.97 with Pinnacle as a value bet, carrying a 10.63% edge and 56% confidence.
Lazio vs Parma takes place Sat · 18:45 in the Serie A.
English 
