Serie A · Sun · 11:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Inter Milan are priced at 1.4, implying roughly 71% win probability and marking them as a heavy favourite in the match-result market
Fiorentina's 7.8 price implies only about 13% chance of victory, while the draw at 5.83 implies roughly 17%
The recommended Under 3.25 goals bet at 1.92 carries an implied probability of about 52%, against a model confidence of 49%, giving a negative value edge of -5.01%
No value picks against market consensus met the site's threshold for this fixture, suggesting the market pricing is seen as broadly efficient here
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (X) | 5.70 | +3.6% | 18% | 55 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
| Bookmaker | 1 · IM | X | 2 · FIO |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.41 | 5.56 | 7.90 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.42 | 5.10 | 7.00 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.42 | 5.10 | 7.00 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.37 | 5.40 | 7.70 |
| Betsson | 1.37 | 5.25 | 7.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.36 | 5.37 | 7.25 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Inter Milan host Fiorentina in Serie A with the bookmakers leaving little room for debate about who the market favours. Best odds of 1.4 on Inter imply a win probability of roughly 71%, a figure that dwarfs Fiorentina's 7.8 price, which translates to around 13%. The draw sits at 5.83, pointing to about 17% likelihood according to the same pricing. These numbers paint a one-sided picture typical of a strong home favourite against a lower-rated away side. Rather than targeting the match result, our model steers toward the goals market, recommending Under 3.25 goals at 1.92 with Pinnacle. That price implies a break-even probability near 52%, while the model's own confidence sits at 49%, producing a modest negative edge. It is a selection built on quantitative modelling rather than any guaranteed outcome.
Verdict: The Under 3.25 goals selection at 1.92 is the model's lead suggestion, but its own numbers show a slight negative edge against market pricing, so this is not a clear-cut value bet. Treat it as a measured, data-informed option rather than a high-confidence pick, and size stakes accordingly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 18:45 | Frosinone v Sassuolo | 2.66 | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| 17 Oct 13:00 | Venezia v Napoli | 5.20 | 4.32 | 1.74 |
| 17 Oct 16:00 | Bologna v Inter Milan | 6.15 | 4.30 | 1.65 |
| 17 Oct 18:45 | AS Roma v Genoa | 1.41 | 5.30 | 9.05 |
| 18 Oct 10:30 | Udinese v Lecce | 1.95 | 3.65 | 4.60 |
| 18 Oct 13:00 | Fiorentina v Como | 3.70 | 3.81 | 2.12 |
| 18 Oct 16:00 | AC Milan v Atalanta BC | 1.93 | 3.86 | 4.40 |
| 18 Oct 18:45 | Juventus v Lazio | 1.73 | 4.04 | 5.71 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +10 | 16 |
| 2 | Lazio | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 16 |
| 3 | Roma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +11 | 14 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 13 |
| 5 | Milan | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +6 | 12 |
| 6 | Juventus | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 11 |
| 7 | Como 1907 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 11 |
| 8 | Napoli | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +4 | 10 |
| 9 | Frosinone | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 10 |
| 10 | Atalanta | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Torino | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Lecce | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 14 | Bologna | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Udinese | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Genoa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Parma | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 20 | Venezia FC | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 3.25 goals at odds of 1.93, with a 50% confidence rating.
Inter Milan are the clear favourites, priced at 1.4, which implies roughly a 71% chance of victory according to the market.
The draw is available at 5.83, implying an approximate 17% probability based on the odds given.
No match-result value picks met the site's threshold for this game. The model instead highlights Under 3.25 goals at 1.92, though this carries a slightly negative edge of -5.01% against its own 49% confidence figure.
Inter Milan vs Fiorentina takes place Sun · 11:30 in the Serie A.
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