English ⚽ Brasileirão 🕒 26 Jul 2026
Our tip
Under 2.5 goals
Odds
1.92
WonResult
1-1Final score
+0.92uProfit
51%Pre-match conf.
+1.59%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at 1xBet
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
The match-result odds are almost level, with Grêmio at 2.65 (around 38%) just ahead of Fluminense at 2.71 (around 37%).
02
The draw at 3.5 implies roughly 29%, consistent with a genuinely balanced fixture where a stalemate is plausible.
03
Our model favours Under 2.5 goals at 1.92, with market-implied confidence near 51%, pointing to a cautious, lower-scoring game.
04
The recommended bet shows a negative value edge of -2.04%, so it reflects a lean rather than a clear pricing advantage over the market.
Team form
GRÊ Grêmio DDDLL
11 Oct 26 vs Internacional 1-1
7 Oct 26 @ Clube do Remo 1-1
20 Sept 26 vs Palmeiras 0-0
16 Sept 26 @ Botafogo 2-3
12 Sept 26 vs Vasco da Gama 1-2
FLU Fluminense LWWLW
11 Oct 26 @ Flamengo 0-1
9 Oct 26 vs Coritiba 4-0
20 Sept 26 @ Corinthians 3-1
12 Sept 26 @ Mineiro 1-3
6 Sept 26 vs Vasco da Gama 1-0
Head-to-head: Grêmio v Fluminense
Full H2H history → D 26 Jul 26
Grêmio 1-1 FluminenseBrasileirão
L 28 Jan 26
Fluminense 2-1 GrêmioBrasileirão
L 3 Dec 25
Grêmio 1-2 FluminenseBrasileirão
L 3 Aug 25
Fluminense 1-0 GrêmioBrasileirão
W/D/L shown from Grêmio's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Grêmio vs Fluminense: pre-match preview
Grêmio host Fluminense in this Brasileirão fixture with the market unable to separate the two sides. Grêmio are marginally shorter at 2.65 with 1xBet, translating to roughly 38% implied probability, while Fluminense sit at 2.71, or about 37%. That narrow gap suggests the bookmakers see this as close to a coin flip between the two, with home advantage barely tipping the scales in Grêmio's favour. The draw is priced at 3.5 with Coolbet, an implied chance near 29%, which is a fairly standard number for an evenly matched contest. Rather than side with either team on the result, our model leans towards the goals market. The recommended play is Under 2.5 goals at 1.92 with 1xBet, carrying a market-implied confidence around 51%. That points to expectations of a tighter, lower-scoring affair rather than an open shootout between Grêmio and Fluminense.
Verdict: The suggested angle is Under 2.5 goals at 1.92, backed by tight, near-even match odds and a slight lean towards a low-scoring contest. With a negative value edge, this is a modest call rather than a standout price, so treat it as a low-confidence pick and stake responsibly.
How it settled: the tip landed — the match finished 1-1, for a flat-stake return of +0.92 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Our record on this fixture
W 26 Jul 26
Draw (X)final score 1-1
3.50 +2.50u L 26 Jul 26
Over 2.5 goalsfinal score 1-1
1.99 -1.00u Upcoming Brasileirão fixtures
All Brasileirão tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 23:00 | Mirassol v Internacional | 2.30 | 3.60 | 3.37 |
| 17 Oct 21:00 | Botafogo v Chapecoense | 1.42 | 5.40 | 8.26 |
| 17 Oct 21:30 | Atletico Mineiro v Coritiba | 1.56 | 4.43 | 6.75 |
| 17 Oct 22:30 | Atletico Paranaense v Palmeiras | 3.35 | 3.50 | 2.35 |
| 18 Oct 00:00 | Sao Paulo v Vasco da Gama | 2.22 | 3.62 | 3.55 |
| 18 Oct 19:00 | Fluminense v Santos | 2.08 | 3.63 | 3.65 |
| 18 Oct 19:00 | Grêmio v Cruzeiro | 3.10 | 3.60 | 2.38 |
| 18 Oct 21:30 | Bahia v Flamengo | 3.37 | 3.85 | 2.10 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Campeonato Brasileiro Série A standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | +33 | 64 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | +30 | 63 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | +14 | 53 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +11 | 51 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | +8 | 49 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | +2 | 48 |
| 7 | Mineiro | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | +6 | 47 |
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | +1 | 42 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | +3 | 40 |
| 10 | São Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 | Vitória | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 | Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 | Vasco da Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 | Grêmio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for Grêmio vs Fluminense?+
Our tip was Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.92.
Did the tip win?+
The tip won — final score 1-1 (+0.92u at flat stakes).