Serie A · Sun · 14:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Genoa are priced at 2.23 to win, implying roughly 45 percent probability and making them the clear market favourite over Venezia.
Venezia's 3.85 price implies about 26 percent, the shortest implied chance of the three outcomes.
The draw at 3.27 implies close to 31 percent, meaning the market sees a draw as more likely than a Venezia win.
The recommended Under 2.5 goals bet at 1.98 carries a -1.5 percent value edge, indicating the price is close to fair rather than offering a clear market inefficiency.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venezia to win | 3.83 | +4.8% | 27% | 59 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
| Bookmaker | 1 · GEN | X | 2 · VEN |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.18 | 3.38 | 3.83 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.18 | 3.55 | 3.35 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.18 | 3.55 | 3.35 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.12 | 3.28 | 3.72 |
| Pinnacle | 2.14 | 3.19 | 3.71 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.15 | 3.30 | 3.45 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Genoa host Venezia in a Serie A fixture where the betting market makes the home side a moderate favourite. At 2.23 for Genoa, the implied win probability sits at roughly 45 percent, well ahead of Venezia's 3.85 price, which translates to around 26 percent. The draw, priced at 3.27, carries an implied chance of about 31 percent, keeping all three outcomes within reasonable reach on paper. Rather than leaning into the match-result market, our model points toward the goals total, recommending Under 2.5 at 1.98. That price implies a fair probability close to 50 percent, and the model's own confidence reading matches that figure almost exactly, suggesting the bookmaker's line is tightly set around what the data supports for this Genoa versus Venezia clash.
Verdict: The Under 2.5 goals pick at 1.98 aligns closely with the model's 50 percent confidence reading, but the slightly negative value edge means it is not a standout value play, just a fairly priced option. Bettors should treat it as a measured, low-edge selection rather than a confident lean, and size stakes accordingly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 18:45 | Frosinone v Sassuolo | 2.66 | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| 17 Oct 13:00 | Venezia v Napoli | 5.20 | 4.32 | 1.74 |
| 17 Oct 16:00 | Bologna v Inter Milan | 6.15 | 4.30 | 1.65 |
| 17 Oct 18:45 | AS Roma v Genoa | 1.41 | 5.30 | 9.05 |
| 18 Oct 10:30 | Udinese v Lecce | 1.95 | 3.65 | 4.60 |
| 18 Oct 13:00 | Fiorentina v Como | 3.70 | 3.81 | 2.12 |
| 18 Oct 16:00 | AC Milan v Atalanta BC | 1.93 | 3.86 | 4.40 |
| 18 Oct 18:45 | Juventus v Lazio | 1.73 | 4.04 | 5.71 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +10 | 16 |
| 2 | Lazio | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 16 |
| 3 | Roma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +11 | 14 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 13 |
| 5 | Milan | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +6 | 12 |
| 6 | Juventus | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 11 |
| 7 | Como 1907 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 11 |
| 8 | Napoli | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +4 | 10 |
| 9 | Frosinone | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 10 |
| 10 | Atalanta | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Torino | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Lecce | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 14 | Bologna | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Udinese | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Genoa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Parma | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 20 | Venezia FC | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.98, with a 50% confidence rating.
Genoa are favourites at 2.23, which implies roughly a 45 percent win probability, compared with Venezia's 3.85 price implying about 26 percent.
The draw is priced at 3.27, implying an approximate 31 percent chance, slightly higher than Venezia's implied win probability.
The model does not flag any match-result value picks above its threshold; its main recommendation is Under 2.5 goals at 1.98, which shows a slightly negative value edge of -1.5 percent rather than a clear edge.
Genoa vs Venezia takes place Sun · 14:00 in the Serie A.
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