Brasileirão · Mon · 23:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Flamengo are priced at 1.4 to win, implying roughly a 71% chance per the betting market, underlining their status as clear favourites.
Atletico Mineiro's 9.8 price implies just over a 10% win probability, reflecting a wide gap between the two sides in market terms.
The draw at 5.01 implies about 20% probability, but the model's fair estimate of 22% creates an 11.58% edge, flagging it as a value angle.
The recommended Under 2.5 goals bet at 2.2 carries 44% model confidence against an implied 45%, resulting in a modest negative edge of -3.79%.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | 13.4% | 7.47 |
| 1-0 | 13.3% | 7.51 |
| 2-1 | 9.4% | 10.62 |
| 1-1 | 9.4% | 10.68 |
| 3-0 | 9.0% | 11.12 |
| 0-0 | 6.6% | 15.13 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 2.01 and 0.70. These six scorelines cover 61% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (X) | 5.01 | +11.6% | 22% | 62 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
W/D/L shown from Flamengo's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · FLA | X | 2 · AM |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.40 | 5.01 | 7.90 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.36 | 4.80 | 7.60 |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.29 | 5.00 | 9.80 |
| 888sport | 1.40 | 4.40 | 6.50 |
| William Hill | 1.40 | 4.40 | 6.50 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.24 | 4.65 | 9.00 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Flamengo welcome Atletico Mineiro in a Brasileirão fixture where the odds leave little doubt about market expectations. Best prices have Flamengo at 1.4, which translates to an implied win probability of roughly 71%, making them strong favourites. Atletico Mineiro, by contrast, are priced at 9.8, implying only around 10% chance of an away win, while the draw sits at 5.01, equating to roughly 20% implied probability. Against this backdrop, the site's model steers away from the outright result market and instead flags Under 2.5 goals at 2.2 as its recommended angle, built on a 44% confidence read, though the calculated edge is slightly negative. Separately, the draw stands out as a value price, with the model's fair probability of 22% exceeding the market's implied 20%, producing a positive edge worth noting for bettors comparing options across this Brasileirão clash.
Verdict: The model's headline pick, Under 2.5 goals at 2.2, is presented with a slightly negative edge, so it should be treated as a measured rather than high-conviction selection. The draw at 5.01 shows more statistical value on paper, but backing an underdog outcome against a heavily favoured Flamengo side carries its own risk. Bankroll discipline is advised either way.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 23:00 | Mirassol v Internacional | 2.30 | 3.60 | 3.37 |
| 17 Oct 21:00 | Botafogo v Chapecoense | 1.42 | 5.40 | 8.26 |
| 17 Oct 21:30 | Atletico Mineiro v Coritiba | 1.56 | 4.43 | 6.75 |
| 17 Oct 22:30 | Atletico Paranaense v Palmeiras | 3.35 | 3.50 | 2.35 |
| 18 Oct 00:00 | Sao Paulo v Vasco da Gama | 2.22 | 3.62 | 3.55 |
| 18 Oct 19:00 | Fluminense v Santos | 2.08 | 3.63 | 3.65 |
| 18 Oct 19:00 | Grêmio v Cruzeiro | 3.10 | 3.60 | 2.38 |
| 18 Oct 21:30 | Bahia v Flamengo | 3.37 | 3.85 | 2.10 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | +33 | 64 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | +30 | 63 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | +14 | 53 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +11 | 51 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | +8 | 49 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | +2 | 48 |
| 7 | Mineiro | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | +6 | 47 |
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | +1 | 42 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | +3 | 40 |
| 10 | São Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 | Vitória | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 | Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 | Vasco da Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 | Grêmio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.20, with a 44% confidence rating.
Flamengo are the clear favourites at odds of 1.4, which implies a win probability of around 71% according to the market.
The best available draw price is 5.01, implying roughly a 20% chance, while the model's fair probability estimate of 22% suggests a positive edge of 11.58%.
The model's recommended bet is Under 2.5 goals at 2.2, though its calculated edge is slightly negative at -3.79%; the draw shows a stronger positive edge of 11.58% based on the same model, though it remains a lower-probability outcome overall.
Flamengo vs Atletico Mineiro takes place Mon · 23:00 in the Brasileirão.
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