Brasileirão · Fri · 23:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Cruzeiro are priced at 1.35, implying close to 74% probability of victory, a strong home favourite tag in this Brasileirão meeting.
Remo's 9.0 price implies roughly 11% winning chance, reflecting a clear market gap between the two sides.
The draw at 5.37 (about 18.6% implied) sits well behind Cruzeiro's win probability, suggesting the market expects a one-sided game rather than a tight contest.
The recommended Over 3.5 goals bet at 2.33 carries a -4.09% value edge against the model's 41% confidence, indicating no clear market inefficiency on that line.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | 11.3% | 8.85 |
| 1-0 | 11.1% | 9.03 |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | 10.13 |
| 1-1 | 9.7% | 10.34 |
| 3-0 | 7.7% | 13.00 |
| 3-1 | 6.7% | 14.90 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 2.04 and 0.87. These six scorelines cover 56% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Cruzeiro's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · CRU | X | 2 · REM |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.35 | 5.37 | 8.60 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.32 | 5.10 | 8.20 |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.30 | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| William Hill | 1.35 | 4.60 | 8.00 |
| 888sport | 1.33 | 4.60 | 8.00 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.26 | 4.65 | 8.25 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Cruzeiro host Remo in a Brasileirão fixture where the betting market leaves little doubt about the expected outcome. Best prices have Cruzeiro at 1.35, which converts to an implied probability of roughly 74%, making them firm favourites on home soil. Remo, at odds of 9.0, are priced at just over 11% to cause an upset, while the draw at 5.37 sits at around 18.6% implied probability. These numbers point to a one-sided contest on paper, with bookmakers expecting Cruzeiro to control proceedings. Away from the match-result market, our model has flagged Over 3.5 goals at 2.33 as its recommended angle, implying a probability near 43%, slightly above the model's own 41% confidence reading. That gap produces a modest negative value edge of -4.09%, meaning the price does not clearly favour backing the total over market expectation, and bettors should treat it as a speculative rather than a high-confidence selection.
Verdict: The match-result market heavily favours Cruzeiro, leaving little each-way value in that line. The flagged Over 3.5 goals pick offers an alternative angle but comes with a slight negative edge versus the model's own probability estimate, so it should be viewed as a moderate-risk, exploratory bet rather than a confident value play.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 23:00 | Mirassol v Internacional | 2.30 | 3.60 | 3.37 |
| 17 Oct 21:00 | Botafogo v Chapecoense | 1.42 | 5.40 | 8.26 |
| 17 Oct 21:30 | Atletico Mineiro v Coritiba | 1.56 | 4.43 | 6.75 |
| 17 Oct 22:30 | Atletico Paranaense v Palmeiras | 3.35 | 3.50 | 2.35 |
| 18 Oct 00:00 | Sao Paulo v Vasco da Gama | 2.22 | 3.62 | 3.55 |
| 18 Oct 19:00 | Fluminense v Santos | 2.08 | 3.63 | 3.65 |
| 18 Oct 19:00 | Grêmio v Cruzeiro | 3.10 | 3.60 | 2.38 |
| 18 Oct 21:30 | Bahia v Flamengo | 3.37 | 3.85 | 2.10 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | +33 | 64 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | +30 | 63 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | +14 | 53 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +11 | 51 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | +8 | 49 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | +2 | 48 |
| 7 | Mineiro | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | +6 | 47 |
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | +1 | 42 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | +3 | 40 |
| 10 | São Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 | Vitória | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 | Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 | Vasco da Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 | Grêmio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.33, with a 41% confidence rating.
Cruzeiro are clear favourites according to the odds, priced at 1.35, which implies roughly a 74% chance of winning this Brasileirão fixture.
The draw is available at 5.37, translating to an implied probability of about 18.6%, well below Cruzeiro's implied win chance.
No standout value picks were identified against the match-result market; the model's Over 3.5 goals selection at 2.33 shows a small negative edge of -4.09%, so it is not a strong value play.
Cruzeiro vs Remo takes place Fri · 23:00 in the Brasileirão.
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