Brasileirão · Mon · 22:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Coritiba are priced at 2.18, implying roughly 46 percent win probability, the clearest signal of market favouritism in this fixture.
Grêmio's 3.42 and the draw's 3.44 are nearly identical, implying both are seen as similarly likely outcomes at around 29 percent each.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 2.02 carries a market-implied confidence of 48 percent but shows a negative value edge of -3.98 percent, meaning the model does not see it as mathematically favourable at this price.
No value picks cleared the threshold against market consensus for the match-result market, indicating the bookmaker prices here are considered broadly efficient.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.2% | 8.22 |
| 1-0 | 10.3% | 9.66 |
| 2-1 | 9.1% | 11.00 |
| 0-1 | 8.2% | 12.27 |
| 2-0 | 7.7% | 12.94 |
| 1-2 | 7.2% | 13.97 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.49 and 1.18. These six scorelines cover 55% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Coritiba's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · COR | X | 2 · GRÊ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.18 | 3.44 | 3.42 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.11 | 3.34 | 3.32 |
| 888sport | 2.10 | 3.20 | 3.30 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 3.20 | 3.30 |
| Betclic (FR) | 2.00 | 3.15 | 3.20 |
| Winamax (DE) | 2.00 | 3.20 | 3.10 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Coritiba host Grêmio in a Brasileirão fixture where the betting market installs the home side as a clear, though not overwhelming, favourite. At 2.18 with 1xBet, Coritiba's price implies a win probability of roughly 46 percent, while Grêmio's 3.42 points to about 29 percent, with the draw priced almost identically at 3.44, implying close to 29 percent as well. That gap between home and away prices suggests bookmakers expect Coritiba to edge this contest on home advantage or current form, though the tightly bunched draw and away odds show the outcome is far from settled. Our model's recommended angle for this match actually steps away from the match-result market entirely, pointing instead to Over 2.5 goals at 2.02, an odds-based goal total bet rather than a pick on who wins.
Verdict: The highlighted Over 2.5 goals selection at 2.02 carries a negative edge of almost 4 percent against the model's own confidence level, so it should be treated as a speculative lean rather than a strong recommendation. With the match-result market showing no value picks at all, this fixture looks close to fairly priced, warranting cautious, modest stakes if betting at all.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 23:00 | Mirassol v Internacional | 2.30 | 3.60 | 3.37 |
| 17 Oct 21:00 | Botafogo v Chapecoense | 1.42 | 5.40 | 8.26 |
| 17 Oct 21:30 | Atletico Mineiro v Coritiba | 1.56 | 4.43 | 6.75 |
| 17 Oct 22:30 | Atletico Paranaense v Palmeiras | 3.35 | 3.50 | 2.35 |
| 18 Oct 00:00 | Sao Paulo v Vasco da Gama | 2.22 | 3.62 | 3.55 |
| 18 Oct 19:00 | Fluminense v Santos | 2.08 | 3.63 | 3.65 |
| 18 Oct 19:00 | Grêmio v Cruzeiro | 3.10 | 3.60 | 2.38 |
| 18 Oct 21:30 | Bahia v Flamengo | 3.37 | 3.85 | 2.10 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | +33 | 64 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | +30 | 63 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | +14 | 53 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +11 | 51 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | +8 | 49 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | +2 | 48 |
| 7 | Mineiro | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | +6 | 47 |
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | +1 | 42 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | +3 | 40 |
| 10 | São Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 | Vitória | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 | Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 | Vasco da Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 | Grêmio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.02, with a 48% confidence rating.
Coritiba are the market favourites at odds of 2.18, implying roughly a 46 percent chance of victory, compared with about 29 percent for Grêmio and a similar 29 percent for the draw.
The draw is priced at 3.44 with 1xBet, implying an outcome probability of close to 29 percent, almost identical to Grêmio's own win price.
No match-result value picks cleared the model's threshold. The one highlighted angle, Over 2.5 goals at 2.02, actually shows a negative value edge of -3.98 percent, so it is not a strong value play by the model's own measure.
Coritiba vs Grêmio takes place Mon · 22:30 in the Brasileirão.
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