Brasileirão · Mon · 23:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Corinthians priced at 1.68 implies close to 59.5 percent win probability, reflecting strong market favouritism.
Vitoria's 5.50 price implies roughly 18 percent, positioning them as considerable outsiders in this matchup.
The draw at 3.85 implies about 26 percent, a notable alternative given the scale of the favourite's pricing.
The Over 2.5 goals recommendation at 2.07 carries a negative 4.01 percent value edge, suggesting the price does not clearly favour bettors despite being the model's top pick.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 14.4% | 6.94 |
| 1-1 | 12.8% | 7.84 |
| 0-0 | 10.6% | 9.43 |
| 2-0 | 9.8% | 10.22 |
| 0-1 | 9.4% | 10.64 |
| 2-1 | 8.7% | 11.55 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.36 and 0.89. These six scorelines cover 66% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitoria to win | 5.75 | +3.3% | 18% | 54 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
W/D/L shown from Corinthians's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · COR | X | 2 · VIT |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.68 | 3.83 | 5.36 |
| Coolbet | 1.65 | 3.75 | 5.75 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.67 | 3.75 | 5.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.66 | 3.80 | 5.42 |
| Matchbook | 1.66 | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| GTbets | 1.68 | 3.68 | 5.24 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Corinthians host Vitoria in a Brasileirão fixture where the betting market leans heavily toward the home side. Best odds of 1.68 on Corinthians translate to an implied probability of roughly 59.5 percent, making them clear favourites over Vitoria, whose 5.50 price implies just under 18 percent. The draw sits at 3.85, implying about 26 percent, a reasonable cushion given the gap in win prices. Away from the match-result market, our model flags Over 2.5 goals at 2.07 as its recommended angle, carrying a market-implied confidence of 46 percent. Notably, this selection shows a negative value edge of just over 4 percent, meaning the model does not see it as a clear-cut value play against the posted price, but rather a reasonably balanced goals market worth weighing alongside the lopsided result odds.
Verdict: The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 2.07 reflects a near-coinflip proposition with 46 percent implied confidence and a slightly negative value edge. It is not a standout value opportunity but a balanced goals market worth considering in moderation, especially given how one-sided the match-result odds appear for Corinthians.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 23:00 | Mirassol v Internacional | 2.30 | 3.60 | 3.37 |
| 17 Oct 21:00 | Botafogo v Chapecoense | 1.42 | 5.40 | 8.26 |
| 17 Oct 21:30 | Atletico Mineiro v Coritiba | 1.56 | 4.43 | 6.75 |
| 17 Oct 22:30 | Atletico Paranaense v Palmeiras | 3.35 | 3.50 | 2.35 |
| 18 Oct 00:00 | Sao Paulo v Vasco da Gama | 2.22 | 3.62 | 3.55 |
| 18 Oct 19:00 | Fluminense v Santos | 2.08 | 3.63 | 3.65 |
| 18 Oct 19:00 | Grêmio v Cruzeiro | 3.10 | 3.60 | 2.38 |
| 18 Oct 21:30 | Bahia v Flamengo | 3.37 | 3.85 | 2.10 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | +33 | 64 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | +30 | 63 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | +14 | 53 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +11 | 51 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | +8 | 49 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | +2 | 48 |
| 7 | Mineiro | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | +6 | 47 |
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | +1 | 42 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | +3 | 40 |
| 10 | São Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 | Vitória | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 | Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 | Vasco da Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 | Grêmio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.15, with a 45% confidence rating.
Corinthians are strong favourites according to the market, priced at 1.68, which implies close to a 59.5 percent chance of victory.
The draw is priced at 3.85, implying an approximate 26 percent probability, making it a secondary consideration behind a Corinthians win.
No standout value picks were identified against market consensus. The model's main recommendation, Over 2.5 goals at 2.07, actually carries a slightly negative value edge of about 4 percent, so it should be viewed as a balanced option rather than a guaranteed value play.
Corinthians vs Vitoria takes place Mon · 23:00 in the Brasileirão.
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