Serie A · Sat · 13:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Como are priced at 1.46 to win, implying an approximate 68.5 percent chance according to the market.
Sassuolo at 7.95 imply only around 12.6 percent, reflecting a sizeable gap between the two sides in the eyes of bookmakers.
The draw at 5.0 implies roughly 20 percent, a price that sits between the two win outcomes as is typical in uneven matchups.
The Over 3.0 goals recommendation at 1.81 carries an implied probability near 55 percent against a model confidence of 53 percent, producing a slightly negative value edge of -4.76 percent.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 12.1% | 8.26 |
| 2-0 | 11.2% | 8.94 |
| 1-1 | 10.6% | 9.42 |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | 10.18 |
| 3-0 | 6.9% | 14.51 |
| 0-0 | 6.6% | 15.27 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.85 and 0.88. These six scorelines cover 57% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Como's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · COM | X | 2 · SAS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.45 | 5.10 | 7.60 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.47 | 4.80 | 6.75 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.47 | 4.80 | 6.75 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.41 | 4.95 | 7.40 |
| Betsson | 1.47 | 4.45 | 6.80 |
| Pinnacle | 1.43 | 4.55 | 7.26 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Como host Sassuolo in a Serie A fixture where the betting market leaves little doubt about the expected outcome. Como are priced as strong favourites at 1.46 with 1xBet, a price that implies a win probability of roughly 68 percent. Sassuolo, at 7.95, are left with an implied chance of just over 12 percent, while the draw sits at 5.0 with Tipico, implying around 20 percent. Those three numbers add up to just over 100 percent once bookmaker margin is factored in, underlining how lopsided the market view is. Away from the match-result market, our model's attention turns to the goals market, flagging Over 3.0 goals at 1.81 on Pinnacle. That price implies a bit over 55 percent, while the model's own confidence sits at 53 percent, producing a modest negative edge. It is a pick worth weighing carefully rather than backing blindly.
Verdict: The Over 3.0 goals pick at 1.81 is the only angle flagged by the model here, but its own numbers show a small negative edge of -4.76 percent against a 53 percent confidence level. It is a plausible goals-market play given Como's heavy favourite status, though not a clear value bet, so stake conservatively.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 18:45 | Frosinone v Sassuolo | 2.66 | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| 17 Oct 13:00 | Venezia v Napoli | 5.20 | 4.32 | 1.74 |
| 17 Oct 16:00 | Bologna v Inter Milan | 6.15 | 4.30 | 1.65 |
| 17 Oct 18:45 | AS Roma v Genoa | 1.41 | 5.30 | 9.05 |
| 18 Oct 10:30 | Udinese v Lecce | 1.95 | 3.65 | 4.60 |
| 18 Oct 13:00 | Fiorentina v Como | 3.70 | 3.81 | 2.12 |
| 18 Oct 16:00 | AC Milan v Atalanta BC | 1.93 | 3.86 | 4.40 |
| 18 Oct 18:45 | Juventus v Lazio | 1.73 | 4.04 | 5.71 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +10 | 16 |
| 2 | Lazio | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 16 |
| 3 | Roma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +11 | 14 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 13 |
| 5 | Milan | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +6 | 12 |
| 6 | Juventus | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 11 |
| 7 | Como 1907 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 11 |
| 8 | Napoli | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +4 | 10 |
| 9 | Frosinone | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 10 |
| 10 | Atalanta | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Torino | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Lecce | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 14 | Bologna | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Udinese | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Genoa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Parma | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 20 | Venezia FC | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 3.0 goals at odds of 1.85, with a 52% confidence rating.
Como are the clear favourites, priced at 1.46, which implies a win probability of roughly 68 percent according to the market.
The draw is priced at 5.0 with Tipico, implying an approximate 20 percent chance, sitting between the two teams' win probabilities.
The only data-backed recommendation is Over 3.0 goals at 1.81, but it carries a slightly negative value edge of -4.76 percent against the model's 53 percent confidence, so it is not a strong value play by the numbers given.
Como vs Sassuolo takes place Sat · 13:00 in the Serie A.
English 
