Brasileirão · Sat · 22:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Fluminense are priced at 1.9, implying about 52.6% win probability, versus 23.7% for Chapecoense and 27.8% for the draw
The gap between favourite and underdog odds points to a clear market lean toward Fluminense without eliminating draw risk
The model's Over 2.5 goals recommendation at 2.02 carries a 48% implied confidence, close to the odds-implied breakeven
No qualifying value picks were found above the site's threshold, and the Over 2.5 angle itself shows a slight negative edge of -3.98%
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.5% | 9.56 |
| 1-2 | 9.9% | 10.11 |
| 0-1 | 9.6% | 10.43 |
| 0-2 | 9.1% | 11.04 |
| 1-3 | 6.2% | 16.05 |
| 0-3 | 5.7% | 17.51 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.09 and 1.89. These six scorelines cover 51% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Chapecoense's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · CHA | X | 2 · FLU |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.22 | 3.60 | 1.90 |
| Marathon Bet | 4.10 | 3.50 | 1.84 |
| MyBookie.ag | 4.20 | 3.46 | 1.81 |
| 888sport | 4.00 | 3.30 | 1.85 |
| William Hill | 4.00 | 3.30 | 1.85 |
| Betclic (FR) | 4.00 | 3.32 | 1.73 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Brasileirão action brings Chapecoense and Fluminense together, with the betting market pointing clearly toward Fluminense as favourites. Best odds of 1.9 on a Fluminense win imply a probability of roughly 53%, well ahead of the 23.7% implied by Chapecoense's 4.22 price and the 27.8% attached to the draw at 3.6. Those numbers suggest the bookmakers see this as a fixture where the away or home status matters less than the broader quality gap the market is pricing in, though a draw remains a live outcome at over a quarter probability. Away from the match-result market, our model's attention turns to the goals total, flagging Over 2.5 at 2.02 as the standout angle, with a model confidence of 48 percent. That confidence sits close to the break-even point implied by the odds, which is reflected in the recommended bet's modest negative value edge of just under 4 percent.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 2.02 is the model's pick, but with confidence near breakeven and a small negative edge, this is not a strong statistical advantage. Treat it as a moderate-risk angle rather than a high-conviction play, and size stakes conservatively given the thin margin involved.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 23:00 | Mirassol v Internacional | 2.30 | 3.60 | 3.37 |
| 17 Oct 21:00 | Botafogo v Chapecoense | 1.42 | 5.40 | 8.26 |
| 17 Oct 21:30 | Atletico Mineiro v Coritiba | 1.56 | 4.43 | 6.75 |
| 17 Oct 22:30 | Atletico Paranaense v Palmeiras | 3.35 | 3.50 | 2.35 |
| 18 Oct 00:00 | Sao Paulo v Vasco da Gama | 2.22 | 3.62 | 3.55 |
| 18 Oct 19:00 | Fluminense v Santos | 2.08 | 3.63 | 3.65 |
| 18 Oct 19:00 | Grêmio v Cruzeiro | 3.10 | 3.60 | 2.38 |
| 18 Oct 21:30 | Bahia v Flamengo | 3.37 | 3.85 | 2.10 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | +33 | 64 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | +30 | 63 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | +14 | 53 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +11 | 51 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | +8 | 49 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | +2 | 48 |
| 7 | Mineiro | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | +6 | 47 |
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | +1 | 42 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | +3 | 40 |
| 10 | São Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 | Vitória | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 | Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 | Vasco da Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 | Grêmio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.02, with a 48% confidence rating.
Fluminense are clear favourites according to the odds, priced at 1.9, which implies roughly a 53% chance of winning. Chapecoense's 4.22 price implies about 23.7%.
The draw is available at 3.6, implying an approximate 27.8% probability, making it a realistic but secondary outcome behind a Fluminense win.
The model highlights Over 2.5 at 2.02 as its recommended bet, but it carries a slight negative value edge of -3.98% and confidence of 48%, so it should be viewed as a moderate rather than strong value opportunity.
Chapecoense vs Fluminense takes place Sat · 22:30 in the Brasileirão.
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