Serie A · Sat · 13:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Bologna are the nominal favourites at 2.58, implying roughly a 39% chance of victory according to the market.
Cagliari's best price of 3.40 implies around a 29% win probability, the lowest of the three outcomes.
The draw at 2.99 (about 33% implied) is priced closely behind Bologna, pointing to a tightly contested match in the eyes of oddsmakers.
The recommended Under 2.25 goals bet at 1.92 carries a market-implied confidence of 49% against an implied break-even of about 52%, giving a negative value edge of roughly -5%.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.4% | 7.47 |
| 1-0 | 12.5% | 8.02 |
| 0-1 | 11.8% | 8.45 |
| 0-0 | 11.0% | 9.08 |
| 2-1 | 7.6% | 13.19 |
| 1-2 | 7.2% | 13.91 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.13 and 1.07. These six scorelines cover 63% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Cagliari's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · CAG | X | 2 · BOL |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.35 | 3.13 | 2.52 |
| Unibet (SE) | 3.10 | 3.25 | 2.43 |
| Unibet (NL) | 3.10 | 3.25 | 2.43 |
| Marathon Bet | 3.25 | 3.04 | 2.44 |
| Pinnacle | 3.29 | 2.95 | 2.46 |
| Betsson | 3.10 | 3.15 | 2.40 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Cagliari host Bologna in a Serie A fixture where the betting market leans toward the visitors without making them overwhelming favourites. Bologna's best price of 2.58 implies a win probability of roughly 39%, while Cagliari's 3.40 reflects about 29%. The draw, priced at 2.99, sits close behind the favourite at around 33%, underlining how tightly the bookmakers view this contest. With no side priced as a clear standout, the most notable angle from the data is on the goals market, where a model-driven Under 2.25 goals selection at 1.92 has been flagged. That price implies a break-even probability near 52%, against a model confidence of 49%, producing a slight negative edge. Bettors weighing this fixture should treat the match-result market as competitive and view the goals line as the more data-supported angle, albeit one without a clear statistical advantage.
Verdict: The Under 2.25 goals selection at 1.92 is the only highlighted angle, but its negative value edge (-5.01%) means the market's own pricing is slightly more demanding than the model's confidence suggests. It is a plausible rather than compelling pick, best treated as moderate-risk and sized cautiously within a balanced bankroll approach.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 18:45 | Frosinone v Sassuolo | 2.66 | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| 17 Oct 13:00 | Venezia v Napoli | 5.20 | 4.32 | 1.74 |
| 17 Oct 16:00 | Bologna v Inter Milan | 6.15 | 4.30 | 1.65 |
| 17 Oct 18:45 | AS Roma v Genoa | 1.41 | 5.30 | 9.05 |
| 18 Oct 10:30 | Udinese v Lecce | 1.95 | 3.65 | 4.60 |
| 18 Oct 13:00 | Fiorentina v Como | 3.70 | 3.81 | 2.12 |
| 18 Oct 16:00 | AC Milan v Atalanta BC | 1.93 | 3.86 | 4.40 |
| 18 Oct 18:45 | Juventus v Lazio | 1.73 | 4.04 | 5.71 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +10 | 16 |
| 2 | Lazio | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 16 |
| 3 | Roma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +11 | 14 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 13 |
| 5 | Milan | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +6 | 12 |
| 6 | Juventus | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 11 |
| 7 | Como 1907 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 11 |
| 8 | Napoli | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +4 | 10 |
| 9 | Frosinone | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 10 |
| 10 | Atalanta | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Torino | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Lecce | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 14 | Bologna | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Udinese | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Genoa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Parma | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 20 | Venezia FC | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.25 goals at odds of 1.89, with a 51% confidence rating.
Bologna are priced as favourites at 2.58, which implies close to a 39% chance of winning, compared with Cagliari's 29% implied chance at 3.40.
The draw is available at 2.99, implying roughly a 33% probability, sitting only a few points behind the favourite in implied terms.
No outright value picks cleared the threshold for the match result market. The only flagged selection, Under 2.25 goals at 1.92, actually shows a slightly negative edge of about -5%, so it should be approached with caution rather than treated as a strong value bet.
Cagliari vs Bologna takes place Sat · 13:00 in the Serie A.
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