English ⚽ Brasileirão 🕒 23 Aug 2026
Our tip
Under 2.5 goals
Odds
1.98
WonResult
1-0Final score
+0.98uProfit
53%Pre-match conf.
-3.88%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at Matchbook
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Bragantino-SP are the market favourites at 1.95, implying about a 51% chance, comfortably ahead of Grêmio's 4.12 (roughly 24%).
02
The draw is priced at 3.6, around 28% implied probability, indicating the market rates a stalemate as more likely than a Grêmio win.
03
The recommended Under 2.5 goals bet at 1.89 shows a market-implied confidence near 51%, hinting at expectations of a lower-scoring game.
04
No match-result selection cleared our value threshold, and the Under pick itself carries a negative edge of -3.54%, so no strong value is present.
Team form
BRA Bragantino-SP WDLLD
13 Oct 26 vs Cruzeiro 4-2
7 Oct 26 vs Mirassol 1-1
3 Oct 26 @ Mineiro 0-1
20 Sept 26 @ Flamengo 1-2
12 Sept 26 @ Botafogo 1-1
GRÊ Grêmio DDDLL
11 Oct 26 vs Internacional 1-1
7 Oct 26 @ Clube do Remo 1-1
20 Sept 26 vs Palmeiras 0-0
16 Sept 26 @ Botafogo 2-3
12 Sept 26 vs Vasco da Gama 1-2
Head-to-head: Bragantino-SP v Grêmio
Full H2H history → W 23 Aug 26
Bragantino 1-0 GrêmioBrasileirão
D 13 Mar 26
Grêmio 1-1 BragantinoBrasileirão
W 4 Oct 25
Bragantino 1-0 GrêmioBrasileirão
D 10 May 25
Grêmio 1-1 BragantinoBrasileirão
W/D/L shown from Bragantino-SP's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Bragantino-SP vs Grêmio: pre-match preview
Bragantino-SP host Grêmio in this Brasileirão fixture, and the market leaves little doubt about which side it favours. At 1.95, Bragantino are priced as clear home favourites, an implied probability of roughly 51%. Grêmio are the outsiders at 4.12, translating to about 24%, while the draw sits at 3.6, or close to 28% in probability terms. That spread points to a match the bookmakers see tilting towards the hosts without being one-sided. Our model does not flag a value edge on the match result; instead it leans towards Under 2.5 goals at 1.89, carrying a market-implied confidence of around 51%. It is worth noting the value edge on that pick is slightly negative at -3.54%, so this is a lean rather than a standout play. The pricing overall suggests a contest that could stay reasonably tight rather than a high-scoring affair.
Verdict: The lean is Under 2.5 goals at 1.89, backed by an implied confidence around 51%. Be aware the value edge is slightly negative at -3.54%, so this is a modest positional call rather than a strong edge. Treat it as a low-conviction play and stake responsibly.
How it settled: the tip landed — the match finished 1-0, for a flat-stake return of +0.98 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Upcoming Brasileirão fixtures
All Brasileirão tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 23:00 | Mirassol v Internacional | 2.30 | 3.60 | 3.37 |
| 17 Oct 21:00 | Botafogo v Chapecoense | 1.42 | 5.40 | 8.26 |
| 17 Oct 21:30 | Atletico Mineiro v Coritiba | 1.56 | 4.43 | 6.75 |
| 17 Oct 22:30 | Atletico Paranaense v Palmeiras | 3.35 | 3.50 | 2.35 |
| 18 Oct 00:00 | Sao Paulo v Vasco da Gama | 2.22 | 3.62 | 3.55 |
| 18 Oct 19:00 | Fluminense v Santos | 2.08 | 3.63 | 3.65 |
| 18 Oct 19:00 | Grêmio v Cruzeiro | 3.10 | 3.60 | 2.38 |
| 18 Oct 21:30 | Bahia v Flamengo | 3.37 | 3.85 | 2.10 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Campeonato Brasileiro Série A standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | +33 | 64 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | +30 | 63 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | +14 | 53 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +11 | 51 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | +8 | 49 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | +2 | 48 |
| 7 | Mineiro | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | +6 | 47 |
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | +1 | 42 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | +3 | 40 |
| 10 | São Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 | Vitória | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 | Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 | Vasco da Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 | Grêmio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for Bragantino-SP vs Grêmio?+
Our tip was Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.98.
Who is the favourite for Bragantino-SP vs Grêmio?+
Bragantino-SP are the favourites at 1.95, an implied probability of about 51%. Grêmio are the outsiders at 4.12, roughly 24%.
What are the odds on the draw?+
The draw is priced at 3.6 with Coolbet, which equates to an implied probability of around 28%.
Is there any betting value in this match?+
No selection cleared our value threshold. The recommended Under 2.5 goals at 1.89 even carries a slightly negative edge of -3.54%, so it is a lean rather than a value pick.
Did the tip win?+
The tip won — final score 1-0 (+0.98u at flat stakes).