Serie A · Sun · 14:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Atalanta are priced at 1.68, implying roughly 59.5 percent win probability, well ahead of Frosinone's 5.2 (about 19.2 percent) and the draw at 4.42 (about 22.6 percent).
The 1X2 market shows a combined overround of around 101 percent, typical for a well-covered Serie A fixture with no flagged value in the outright result.
The recommended Under 3.25 goals bet at 1.89 carries an implied probability near 52.9 percent against a model confidence of 50 percent, giving a negative value edge of -5.0 percent.
No value picks versus market consensus met the site's threshold for this match, meaning the goals total is the only angle with any model input.
| Bookmaker | 1 · AB | X | 2 · FRO |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.68 | 4.53 | 5.04 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.66 | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.66 | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.63 | 4.40 | 4.90 |
| Betsson | 1.60 | 4.30 | 5.05 |
| Pinnacle | 1.62 | 4.18 | 4.98 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Atalanta BC host Frosinone in a Serie A fixture where the betting market leaves little doubt about the expected outcome. Best odds of 1.68 for Atalanta imply a win probability of roughly 59.5 percent, making the home side a clear favourite over Frosinone, whose 5.2 price reflects just under 19 percent implied probability. The draw sits at 4.42, worth about 22.6 percent. With such a lopsided match-result market, our model instead looks toward the goals markets, flagging Under 3.25 goals at 1.89 as the recommended angle. That price implies around 52.9 percent probability, against a model confidence of 50 percent, producing a slightly negative value edge of -5.0 percent. No outright value picks against the 1X2 market consensus were identified for this fixture, so this preview centres on the goals total rather than the match winner.
Verdict: The Under 3.25 goals selection at 1.89 is the only model-flagged angle here, but with a -5.0 percent edge it is not a standout value play, more a marginally priced option. Bettors should treat it as moderate risk and size stakes conservatively given the negative edge.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 18:45 | Frosinone v Sassuolo | 2.66 | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| 17 Oct 13:00 | Venezia v Napoli | 5.20 | 4.32 | 1.74 |
| 17 Oct 16:00 | Bologna v Inter Milan | 6.15 | 4.30 | 1.65 |
| 17 Oct 18:45 | AS Roma v Genoa | 1.41 | 5.30 | 9.05 |
| 18 Oct 10:30 | Udinese v Lecce | 1.95 | 3.65 | 4.60 |
| 18 Oct 13:00 | Fiorentina v Como | 3.70 | 3.81 | 2.12 |
| 18 Oct 16:00 | AC Milan v Atalanta BC | 1.93 | 3.86 | 4.40 |
| 18 Oct 18:45 | Juventus v Lazio | 1.73 | 4.04 | 5.71 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +10 | 16 |
| 2 | Lazio | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 16 |
| 3 | Roma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +11 | 14 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 13 |
| 5 | Milan | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +6 | 12 |
| 6 | Juventus | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 11 |
| 7 | Como 1907 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 11 |
| 8 | Napoli | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +4 | 10 |
| 9 | Frosinone | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 10 |
| 10 | Atalanta | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Torino | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Lecce | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 14 | Bologna | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Udinese | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Genoa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Parma | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 20 | Venezia FC | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 3.25 goals at odds of 1.93, with a 50% confidence rating.
Atalanta BC are the clear market favourites at 1.68, implying close to 59.5 percent win probability, compared with Frosinone's 5.2 price.
The draw is available at 4.42, which implies roughly a 22.6 percent probability according to the best available odds.
No value picks against market consensus were identified for the 1X2 market in this fixture; the model's only flagged angle is the Under 3.25 goals line at 1.89, which itself shows a slightly negative edge of -5.0 percent.
Atalanta BC vs Frosinone takes place Sun · 14:00 in the Serie A.
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