Week results
Week 36 in review
Week 36 closed as a losing week for the model: 174 tips issued, 159 graded (15 void), with 77 wins against 82 losses for -7.21u at flat stakes, an ROI of -4.5% per graded bet. Over/under totals carried most of the volume and were close to break-even on selections (56W-55L) but still cost 6.26u, while match-result picks were milder losers at -0.95u. By league, MLS was the clear drag, going 7W-13L for -7.28u, more than the week's entire net deficit, while League One (+4.47u), Liga Profesional (+3.65u) and Primeira Liga (+3.63u) posted strong returns. The honest takeaway is that a near-even win rate in a market doesn't guarantee profit once odds and margins are factored in, and one poor league can outweigh several good ones in a single week.
By market
| Over/Under totals | 123 tips · 56W–55L–12V · -6.26u (ROI -5.6%) |
| Match result (1X2) | 51 tips · 21W–27L–3V · -0.95u (ROI -2%) |
By league
| MLS | 24 tips · 7W–13L–4V · -7.28u (ROI -36.4%) |
| Liga Profesional | 11 tips · 4W–2L–5V · +3.65u (ROI +60.8%) |
| Premier League | 9 tips · 4W–4L–1V · +0.08u (ROI +1%) |
| Eliteserien | 9 tips · 5W–4L · +0.72u (ROI +8%) |
| Greek Super League | 8 tips · 2W–6L · -3.50u (ROI -43.7%) |
| La Liga 2 | 8 tips · 5W–3L · +1.90u (ROI +23.8%) |
| La Liga | 7 tips · 3W–4L · -1.06u (ROI -15.1%) |
| J1 League | 7 tips · 4W–3L · +0.34u (ROI +4.9%) |
| Belgian Pro League | 7 tips · 2W–4L–1V · -1.72u (ROI -28.7%) |
| Scottish Premiership | 7 tips · 3W–3L–1V · -0.55u (ROI -9.2%) |
| Championship | 7 tips · 3W–4L · -1.38u (ROI -19.7%) |
| League One | 7 tips · 5W–2L · +4.47u (ROI +63.9%) |
| Brasileirão | 7 tips · 4W–3L · -0.62u (ROI -8.9%) |
| Allsvenskan | 6 tips · 2W–4L · -2.13u (ROI -35.5%) |
| Serie A | 6 tips · 4W–2L · +2.04u (ROI +34%) |
| Ekstraklasa | 6 tips · 3W–3L · -0.19u (ROI -3.2%) |
| Danish Superliga | 6 tips · 4W–2L · +1.42u (ROI +23.7%) |
| Eredivisie | 6 tips · 2W–4L · -2.31u (ROI -38.5%) |
| Primeira Liga | 5 tips · 4W–0L–1V · +3.63u (ROI +90.8%) |
| Ligue 1 | 5 tips · 2W–3L · -1.23u (ROI -24.6%) |
| Süper Lig | 4 tips · 2W–2L · +0.43u (ROI +10.8%) |
| Bundesliga | 4 tips · 2W–2L · -0.12u (ROI -3%) |
| Liga MX | 3 tips · 0W–2L–1V · -2.00u (ROI -100%) |
| 2. Bundesliga | 3 tips · 1W–1L–1V · +0.20u (ROI +10%) |
| Austrian Bundesliga | 2 tips · 0W–2L · -2.00u (ROI -100%) |
Full log
Stakes are flat 1u per tip. Kick-offs shown in UTC. Results are graded automatically after full time.
Week 36 results FAQ
A single week is too small a sample to judge any long-term edge, even with over a hundred settled bets. This week's model settled 159 graded picks and still finished at -7.21u (ROI -4.5%), showing how much results can swing short-term; it's better to review performance across many months before drawing conclusions.
A near-even win rate isn't the same as break-even profit, because it ignores the odds attached to each side. This week over/under totals went 56W-55L, almost dead even on results, yet still finished -6.26u, since the odds on winning bets were often shorter than on the losing ones.
Yes, a single underperforming league can offset profits from several others. This week MLS alone lost 7.28u on a 7W-13L record, more than the week's overall net loss, while leagues such as League One, Liga Profesional and Primeira Liga were comfortably in profit, which is a reminder to manage exposure across leagues and markets rather than concentrate stakes in one place.