English ⚽ Ligue 1 🕒 4 Sept 2026
Our tip
Under 3.0 goals
Odds
1.71
LostResult
3-1Final score
-1.00uProfit
53%Pre-match conf.
-10.47%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at Coolbet
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Lyon are priced at 1.56 (1xBet), implying about 64 percent win probability, making them clear favourites over Auxerre.
02
Auxerre's best price of 6.6 (Betfair) implies roughly 15 percent, reflecting long-odds underdog status in this matchup.
03
The draw at 4.6 (Betfair) carries an implied probability of about 22 percent, a moderate but secondary outcome in the market's view.
04
The recommended Under 3.0 goals bet at 1.71 (Coolbet) shows a 13.4 percent value edge and 53 percent model confidence, the standout angle in this preview given no side-market value picks cleared the threshold.
Team form
LYO Lyon WDWDW
19 Sept 26 vs Stade Rennais 4-0
12 Sept 26 @ Paris FC 0-0
4 Sept 26 vs Auxerre 3-1
29 Aug 26 vs Le Havre 1-1
22 Aug 26 @ Toulouse 2-0
AUX Auxerre WWLLL
20 Sept 26 vs Brest 2-1
12 Sept 26 vs Nice 1-0
4 Sept 26 @ Olympique Lyon 1-3
29 Aug 26 vs Angers SCO 1-3
22 Aug 26 @ RC Lens 2-5
Head-to-head: Lyon v Auxerre
Full H2H history → W 4 Sept 26
Olympique Lyon 3-1 AuxerreLigue 1
W 25 Apr 26
Olympique Lyon 3-2 AuxerreLigue 1
D 23 Nov 25
Auxerre 0-0 Olympique LyonLigue 1
W/D/L shown from Lyon's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Lyon vs Auxerre: pre-match preview
Lyon's home meeting with Auxerre in Ligue 1 sees the market lean heavily toward the hosts. The best price on Lyon, 1.56 with 1xBet, implies a win probability of roughly 64 percent, while Auxerre's top price of 6.6 with Betfair points to just under 15 percent. The draw, at 4.6 with Betfair, sits at around 22 percent implied probability, leaving a combined overround of about one percent, which is fairly tight for a three-way market. Rather than picking a side in the result market, our model turns to the goals total, flagging Under 3.0 goals at 1.71 with Coolbet as the recommended angle. This price corresponds to an implied probability near 58.5 percent, and the model estimates a 53 percent confidence level with a value edge of 13.4 percent versus its own assessment, suggesting the goals market may be undervaluing a lower-scoring outcome even with Lyon strongly favoured to win.
Verdict: The recommended play is Under 3.0 goals at 1.71, backed by a 13.4 percent value edge and 53 percent model confidence. It is a moderate-risk selection rather than a high-conviction one, and bettors should size stakes responsibly given the uncertainty inherent in goals markets.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 3-1, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Our record on this fixture
W 4 Sept 26
Under 4.5 goalsfinal score 3-1
1.96 +0.96u Upcoming Ligue 1 fixtures
All Ligue 1 tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 18:45 | Marseille v Paris Saint Germain | 7.40 | 5.50 | 1.46 |
| 9 Oct 18:45 | RC Lens v Lyon | 2.26 | 3.85 | 3.25 |
| 10 Oct 15:15 | Lille v Le Havre | 1.48 | 4.88 | 7.80 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | AS Monaco v Toulouse | 1.82 | 4.11 | 4.70 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | Brest v Angers | 2.00 | 3.85 | 3.95 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | Lorient v Paris FC | 3.04 | 3.60 | 2.48 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | Paris Saint Germain v Le Mans FC | 1.12 | 13.40 | 24.00 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Nice v Strasbourg | 2.29 | 3.72 | 3.23 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Ligue 1 standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 13 |
| 2 | Olympique Lyon | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +8 | 11 |
| 3 | Paris FC | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +5 | 11 |
| 4 | Lille | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 10 |
| 5 | Stade Rennais | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 10 |
| 6 | Angers SCO | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 7 |
| 7 | Strasbourg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 8 | Le Mans | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | PSG | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 | Auxerre | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 6 |
| 11 | Brest | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | Lorient | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 13 | Toulouse | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Nice | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 | RC Lens | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 16 | Marseille | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 17 | Troyes | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for Lyon vs Auxerre?+
Our tip was Under 3.0 goals at odds of 1.71.
Who is favourite in the Lyon vs Auxerre match?+
Lyon are the clear favourites, with best odds of 1.56 implying a win probability of around 64 percent, compared to Auxerre's 6.6 price implying about 15 percent.
What is the draw priced at for Lyon vs Auxerre?+
The best available draw price is 4.6 with Betfair, which implies a probability of roughly 22 percent.
Is there value in betting on this Ligue 1 fixture?+
No match-result value picks cleared the threshold, but the model highlights value in the goals market, specifically Under 3.0 goals at 1.71 with a 13.4 percent edge and 53 percent confidence.
Did the tip win?+
The tip lost — final score 3-1 (-1.00u at flat stakes).