Greek Super League · kicked off 6 Sept 2026 — the tip we published before the match and how it settled.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Panathinaikos are market favourites at 2.51, implying close to a 40 percent chance of victory.
PAOK's best price of 2.90 implies roughly 34.5 percent, but the model rates their true chance nearer 36 percent, creating a 3.62 percent value edge.
The draw is priced at 3.50, implying just under 29 percent, keeping the outcome distribution relatively balanced across all three results.
No additional value picks emerged from the wider market consensus check, meaning PAOK to win stands as the only edge identified from this data.
W/D/L shown from Panathinaikos's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Panathinaikos host PAOK Thessaloniki in a Greek Super League clash where the betting market leans toward the home side without making them prohibitive favourites. Panathinaikos are priced at 2.51 with Pinnacle, which implies a win probability of roughly 40 percent. PAOK are available at 2.90 with Coolbet, translating to an implied chance of about 34 to 35 percent, while the draw sits at 3.50, implying just under 29 percent. Those numbers show a fairly tight three-way market, with the hosts only modestly favoured over the visitors. Our model flags PAOK's price as the most interesting angle in this fixture, estimating their true winning chance at around 36 percent, slightly above what the 2.90 odds imply, producing a value edge of 3.62 percent. That gap is the basis for the recommended bet, though it remains a moderate-confidence selection rather than a standout certainty.
Verdict: The recommended play is PAOK Thessaloniki to win at 2.90, based on a modest 3.62 percent value edge over the market's implied probability. It is a reasonable, data-supported angle rather than a high-confidence pick, and stakes should be sized conservatively given the tight overall market spread.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 3-1, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 18:00 | Panetolikos Agrinio v PAOK Thessaloniki | 170.00 | 29.00 | 1.03 |
| 10 Oct 15:00 | PAOK Thessaloniki v Kalamata FC | 1.25 | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | AEK Athens v OFI Crete | 1.20 | 6.10 | 14.00 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | Asteras Tripolis v Atromitos Athens | 2.45 | 3.16 | 2.89 |
| 11 Oct 14:00 | Iraklis FC v Levadiakos | 2.47 | 3.30 | 2.90 |
| 11 Oct 14:00 | AE Kifisia FC v Panetolikos Agrinio | 2.12 | 3.30 | 3.55 |
| 11 Oct 16:00 | Aris Thessaloniki v Volos FC | 1.77 | 3.60 | 5.15 |
| 11 Oct 18:00 | Olympiakos Piraeus v Panathinaikos | 2.20 | 3.30 | 3.39 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip was PAOK Thessaloniki to win at odds of 2.90.
Panathinaikos are the market favourites, priced at 2.51, which implies close to a 40 percent chance of winning, compared to PAOK's implied 34.5 percent at 2.90.
The draw is available at 3.50 with Coolbet, which implies a probability of just under 29 percent.
According to the model, PAOK Thessaloniki to win at 2.90 offers a value edge of about 3.62 percent versus the market-implied probability, making it the only flagged value selection for this match.
The tip lost — final score 3-1 (-1.00u at flat stakes).
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