Scottish Premiership · kicked off 5 Sept 2026 — the tip we published before the match and how it settled.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Celtic's 1.43 price implies close to 70 percent win probability, making them heavy favourites over St Mirren in this fixture.
St Mirren's 8.3 price implies only about 12 percent, reflecting the market's low expectation of an away upset at home for the hosts.
The draw at 5.0 carries a market-implied probability near 20 percent, and the model's fair probability of 21 percent gives it a positive edge of 7.32 percent, marking it as a possible value angle.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.55 carries 61 percent implied confidence but shows a negative edge of -5.82 percent, meaning the price does not clearly favour bettors according to the model.
W/D/L shown from St Mirren's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
St Mirren host Celtic at home in the Scottish Premiership, but the betting market leaves little doubt about who is expected to come out on top. Celtic are priced at 1.43, which implies a win probability of roughly 70 percent, making them strong favourites. St Mirren, at 8.3, are given only around 12 percent, while the draw sits at 5.0, translating to about 20 percent. Those numbers point to a lopsided contest on paper, with the bookmakers seeing Celtic as clearly dominant. Our model's headline suggestion for this match is not on the result market at all, but on goals: Over 2.5 at 1.55, reflecting a 61 percent implied confidence level, though the calculated edge on that price is slightly negative. Separately, the draw stands out as a possible value angle, with a fair probability estimate of 21 percent against the 20 percent implied by the market price, a modest positive edge.
Verdict: The market leans heavily toward a comfortable Celtic performance, but the model's own recommended bet, Over 2.5 goals at 1.55, actually carries a negative edge, so it should be treated as a moderate-confidence pick rather than a strong value play. The draw's positive edge is worth noting for bettors comfortable with higher-risk outcomes. Stake sizing should reflect this uncertainty.
How it settled: the tip landed — the match finished 1-2, for a flat-stake return of +0.68 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Our tip was Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.68.
Celtic are the clear favourites, priced at 1.43, which implies close to a 70 percent chance of victory according to the market.
The best available price on the draw is 5.0, implying roughly a 20 percent probability, and the model estimates a slightly higher fair probability of 21 percent, giving it a positive edge of 7.32 percent.
The model highlights the draw as a value pick due to its positive edge, while its recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.55 actually shows a negative edge of -5.82 percent, so it is not a standout value play despite being the flagged recommendation.
The tip won — final score 1-2 (+0.68u at flat stakes).
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