English ⚽ Scottish Premiership 🕒 3 Sept 2026
Our tip
Under 3.0 goals
Odds
1.99
LostResult
1-3Final score
-1.00uProfit
52%Pre-match conf.
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at Pinnacle
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Hibernian are marginal favourites at 2.64 (Matchbook), implying about a 38% chance of victory, just ahead of Hearts at 2.82 (Betfair) with roughly 35% implied.
02
The draw at 3.5 (Coolbet) implies close to a 29% probability, keeping all three match-result outcomes within a tight range.
03
The combined implied probabilities exceed 100% by around 1.9%, reflecting normal bookmaker overround rather than a genuine edge for backers.
04
The model's recommended Under 2.5 Goals bet at 2.0 (Matchbook) carries only 48% implied confidence and a negative value edge of -3.09%, meaning the model itself does not see this as a clear-cut value play.
05
No match-result selection cleared the site's value threshold, so there are no standout picks flagged against market consensus for this derby.
Team form
HIB Hibernian DLLLW
19 Sept 26 vs Aberdeen 1-1
15 Sept 26 vs Kilmarnock 0-1
6 Sept 26 @ St Johnstone 1-2
3 Sept 26 vs Hearts 1-3
30 Aug 26 @ Dundee FC 2-1
HEA Hearts DLWWW
19 Sept 26 @ Kilmarnock 1-1
15 Sept 26 @ Falkirk F.C. 1-2
6 Sept 26 vs Dundee FC 2-1
3 Sept 26 @ Hibernian 3-1
9 Aug 26 vs Dundee United 4-0
Head-to-head: Hibernian v Hearts
L 3 Sept 26
Hibernian 1-3 HeartsScottish Premiership
W/D/L shown from Hibernian's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Hibernian vs Hearts: pre-match preview
Hibernian host Hearts in a Scottish Premiership derby where the betting market sees very little separating the two sides. Best-priced odds have Hibernian as narrow favourites at 2.64 with Matchbook, which implies a win probability of roughly 38%, just ahead of Hearts at 2.82 with Betfair (around 35% implied). The draw, priced at 3.5 with Coolbet, carries an implied probability near 29%, underlining how tightly matched this fixture is on paper. With no side commanding a clear edge in the win market, attention shifts to the goals markets, where our model highlights Under 2.5 Goals at 2.0 with Matchbook as its recommended angle, albeit with a modest 48% confidence level and a slightly negative value edge. This is a fixture that looks competitive rather than one-sided, and the pricing reflects that balance across all three outcomes.
Verdict: The recommended play is Under 2.5 Goals at 2.0 with Matchbook, but with only 48% model confidence and a negative -3.09% edge, this sits closer to a speculative lean than a strong value bet. The match-result market itself is essentially a three-way toss-up, so caution and modest stakes are advisable.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 1-3, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Our record on this fixture
L 3 Sept 26
Under 2.5 goalsfinal score 1-3
2.20 -1.00u Match FAQ
What was our prediction for Hibernian vs Hearts?+
Our tip was Under 3.0 goals at odds of 1.99.
Who is favourite in the Hibernian vs Hearts betting odds?+
Hibernian are the narrow market favourites at 2.64 with Matchbook, implying roughly a 38% win probability, just ahead of Hearts at 2.82 with Betfair (about 35% implied).
What is the draw priced at for Hibernian vs Hearts?+
The draw is priced at 3.5 with Coolbet, which implies a probability of around 29%, keeping it competitive with both teams' win chances.
Is there a value bet for this Scottish Premiership match?+
No match-result selection cleared the site's value threshold. The model's Under 2.5 Goals pick at 2.0 (Matchbook) is offered as a lean, but it carries only 48% confidence and a slightly negative -3.09% edge, so it should not be treated as a strong value opportunity.
Did the tip win?+
The tip lost — final score 1-3 (-1.00u at flat stakes).