Championship · Today · 18:45 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Wrexham are priced as favourites at 2.43, implying close to a 41% win probability compared to West Brom's 2.95 (about 34%).
The draw at 3.45 implies roughly 29% probability, keeping the three outcomes fairly tightly bunched.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.88 carries 49% modelled confidence against an implied 53% from the price, producing a negative value edge of -7.27%.
No selections in the standard value-picks scan cleared the site's threshold against market consensus for this match.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.9% | 7.77 |
| 1-0 | 11.9% | 8.37 |
| 0-1 | 9.6% | 10.42 |
| 0-0 | 8.9% | 11.22 |
| 2-1 | 8.6% | 11.59 |
| 2-0 | 8.0% | 12.48 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.34 and 1.08. These six scorelines cover 60% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Wrexham AFC's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · WA | X | 2 · WBA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 2.36 | 3.55 | 3.35 |
| Matchbook | 2.36 | 3.55 | 3.35 |
| Pinnacle | 2.32 | 3.41 | 3.22 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.35 | 3.45 | 3.05 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.30 | 3.33 | 3.17 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.38 | 3.30 | 3.05 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Wrexham AFC host West Bromwich Albion in a Championship clash where the betting market leans toward the home side. Best-priced odds have Wrexham at 2.43 with LeoVegas, which translates to an implied win probability of roughly 41%, making them the shorter-priced selection ahead of West Brom at 2.95 (about 34%) and the draw at 3.45 (close to 29%). That gap of under three percentage points between favourite and underdog points to a fixture the market views as competitive rather than one-sided. Away from the result market, our model's standout angle is Over 2.5 goals at 1.88 with Unibet, carrying a modelled confidence of 49%. That sits a touch below the price's own implied probability of roughly 53%, giving a value edge of -7.27%, so it is presented as a reasoned selection rather than a clear-cut value play. No other markets cleared our value threshold for this fixture.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 1.88 is the lone recommended angle, built on a 49% confidence read that falls short of the price's implied probability, leaving a negative edge of -7.27%. It is a reasoned rather than high-value pick, so stake sizing should reflect that modest uncertainty.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct 18:45 | Cardiff City v Watford | 1.72 | 4.50 | 5.20 |
| 13 Oct 18:45 | Burnley v Charlton Athletic | 1.69 | 4.10 | 5.90 |
| 13 Oct 18:45 | Bristol City v Blackburn Rovers | 2.16 | 3.60 | 3.85 |
| 13 Oct 18:45 | Millwall v Swansea City | 2.52 | 3.50 | 3.10 |
| 13 Oct 18:45 | Wolverhampton Wanderers v Bolton Wanderers | 1.43 | 5.30 | 8.40 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | Birmingham City v Preston North End | 1.53 | 4.78 | 7.20 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | Stoke City v Middlesbrough | 3.80 | 3.80 | 2.08 |
| 14 Oct 18:45 | Norwich City v Southampton | 2.54 | 4.00 | 2.80 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | +8 | 20 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | +5 | 18 |
| 3 | West Ham | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | +11 | 16 |
| 4 | Stoke | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 16 |
| 5 | Wolverhampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +4 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | +3 | 14 |
| 7 | Birmingham | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | +2 | 14 |
| 8 | Millwall | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 14 |
| 9 | West Brom | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 14 |
| 10 | Bristol City | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 | Southampton | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | +10 | 13 |
| 12 | Charlton | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 13 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 12 |
| 14 | Sheffield Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 12 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 11 |
| 16 | Lincoln City | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 17 | Bolton | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 18 | Norwich | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -2 | 9 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 22 | Burnley | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 23 | Derby County | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 24 | Preston NE | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 4 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.18, with a 46% confidence rating.
Wrexham are the market favourites at best odds of 2.43, implying around a 41% win probability, compared to West Brom's 2.95 (about 34%).
The draw is available at 3.45 with LeoVegas, which implies a probability of roughly 29%.
The model rates Over 2.5 goals at 1.88 with 49% confidence, which is slightly below the price's implied 53%, giving a negative value edge of -7.27% rather than a clear statistical edge.
Wrexham AFC vs West Bromwich Albion takes place Today · 18:45 in the Championship.
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