Championship · Today · 18:45 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Bristol City are priced at 1.95 for the win, implying roughly 51% probability and making them clear favourites over Blackburn Rovers.
Blackburn's 3.95 price implies only around 25% win probability, with the draw at 3.75 implying close to 27%.
The combined implied probabilities exceed 100%, reflecting normal bookmaker margin rather than any hidden edge in the match-result market.
The model's recommended Over 2.5 Goals bet at 1.74 carries a 53% implied confidence but a negative value edge of about -6.95%, suggesting limited extra value versus market pricing.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.8% | 7.79 |
| 1-0 | 12.3% | 8.16 |
| 0-1 | 9.4% | 10.59 |
| 0-0 | 9.0% | 11.09 |
| 2-1 | 8.7% | 11.47 |
| 2-0 | 8.3% | 12.00 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.36 and 1.05. These six scorelines cover 61% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Bristol City's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · BC | X | 2 · BR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 2.16 | 3.50 | 3.85 |
| Betfair | 2.16 | 3.50 | 3.85 |
| Pinnacle | 2.14 | 3.40 | 3.66 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.00 | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.15 | 3.35 | 3.50 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.07 | 3.40 | 3.66 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Bristol City go into this Championship meeting with Blackburn Rovers as the clear market favourites, with the best price on a home win trading at 1.95, which implies a win probability of roughly 51%. Blackburn drift out to 3.95, pointing to around a 25% chance of an away win, while the draw sits at 3.75, implying about 27%. Those numbers show bookmakers expect City to edge this one but without total certainty, leaving a meaningful gap for an upset or stalemate. Away from the result market, our model's attention turns to goal supply, flagging Over 2.5 Goals at 1.74 as its recommended angle, built on an implied confidence of 53%. The edge versus pure market consensus is modest and in fact slightly negative, so this looks more like a reasoned lean than a standout market inefficiency.
Verdict: The data points to Bristol City as the stronger side on paper and Over 2.5 Goals as the model's preferred angle, though the negative value edge means this is not a strong market mismatch. Treat it as a measured, moderate-risk selection rather than a confident edge, and size stakes accordingly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct 18:45 | Cardiff City v Watford | 1.72 | 4.50 | 5.20 |
| 13 Oct 18:45 | Burnley v Charlton Athletic | 1.69 | 4.10 | 5.90 |
| 13 Oct 18:45 | Millwall v Swansea City | 2.52 | 3.50 | 3.10 |
| 13 Oct 18:45 | Wrexham AFC v West Bromwich Albion | 2.38 | 3.55 | 3.35 |
| 13 Oct 18:45 | Wolverhampton Wanderers v Bolton Wanderers | 1.43 | 5.30 | 8.40 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | Birmingham City v Preston North End | 1.53 | 4.78 | 7.20 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | Stoke City v Middlesbrough | 3.80 | 3.80 | 2.08 |
| 14 Oct 18:45 | Norwich City v Southampton | 2.54 | 4.00 | 2.80 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | +8 | 20 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | +5 | 18 |
| 3 | West Ham | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | +11 | 16 |
| 4 | Stoke | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 16 |
| 5 | Wolverhampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +4 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | +3 | 14 |
| 7 | Birmingham | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | +2 | 14 |
| 8 | Millwall | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 14 |
| 9 | West Brom | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 14 |
| 10 | Bristol City | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 | Southampton | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | +10 | 13 |
| 12 | Charlton | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 13 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 12 |
| 14 | Sheffield Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 12 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 11 |
| 16 | Lincoln City | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 17 | Bolton | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 18 | Norwich | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -2 | 9 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 22 | Burnley | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 23 | Derby County | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 24 | Preston NE | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 4 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.08, with a 48% confidence rating.
Bristol City are favourites according to the odds, priced at 1.95 for the win, which implies about a 51% chance compared with roughly 25% for Blackburn Rovers.
The best available draw price is 3.75, which implies a probability of around 27%, meaning the market sees a draw as a realistic but less likely outcome than a Bristol City win.
The model highlights Over 2.5 Goals at 1.74 with 53% implied confidence, but its value edge versus market consensus is slightly negative at about -6.95%, so it should be viewed as a reasoned pick rather than a clear value bet.
Bristol City vs Blackburn Rovers takes place Today · 18:45 in the Championship.
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