Championship · Today · 18:45 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Millwall are market favourites at 2.48, implying roughly a 40 percent win probability, the shortest price among the three outcomes.
Swansea City's best odds of 2.87 imply around 35 percent, keeping the gap between the two sides relatively tight.
The draw at 3.5 implies close to 29 percent, reflecting a fixture the market does not see as one-sided.
The recommended Over 2.5 Goals bet at 1.85 shows a negative value edge of 7.5 percent against the model's 50 percent confidence, suggesting the price is not clearly favourable.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.6% | 7.95 |
| 1-0 | 10.9% | 9.15 |
| 0-1 | 9.0% | 11.10 |
| 2-1 | 8.8% | 11.39 |
| 0-0 | 7.8% | 12.77 |
| 2-0 | 7.6% | 13.11 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.40 and 1.15. These six scorelines cover 57% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Millwall's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · MIL | X | 2 · SC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 2.52 | 3.50 | 3.10 |
| Betfair | 2.52 | 3.50 | 3.10 |
| Pinnacle | 2.50 | 3.33 | 3.01 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.50 | 3.40 | 2.88 |
| Coolbet | 2.45 | 3.40 | 2.90 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.44 | 3.40 | 2.90 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Millwall host Swansea City in a Championship clash where the betting market makes the home side the narrow favourite. LeoVegas prices Millwall at 2.48, which implies a win probability of roughly 40 percent, while Swansea's best price of 2.87 with 1xBet points to around 35 percent. The draw, also best backed at 3.5 with LeoVegas, suggests close to 29 percent, underlining how tightly matched the bookmakers see this Championship fixture. With no single result standing out as a stronger-than-market pick, our model instead turns to the goals market, flagging Over 2.5 Goals at 1.85 with Unibet. That price implies a 54 percent chance of the match producing three or more goals, though the model's own confidence sits at 50 percent, meaning the recommendation carries a negative value edge rather than a clear mathematical advantage.
Verdict: The Over 2.5 Goals selection at 1.85 is the only angle the model highlights, but its negative 7.5 percent edge means the market price is not obviously generous relative to the model's own estimate. It is a plausible but unconvincing lean rather than a strong value play, so stake sizing should reflect that uncertainty.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct 18:45 | Cardiff City v Watford | 1.72 | 4.50 | 5.20 |
| 13 Oct 18:45 | Burnley v Charlton Athletic | 1.69 | 4.10 | 5.90 |
| 13 Oct 18:45 | Bristol City v Blackburn Rovers | 2.16 | 3.60 | 3.85 |
| 13 Oct 18:45 | Wrexham AFC v West Bromwich Albion | 2.38 | 3.55 | 3.35 |
| 13 Oct 18:45 | Wolverhampton Wanderers v Bolton Wanderers | 1.43 | 5.30 | 8.40 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | Birmingham City v Preston North End | 1.53 | 4.78 | 7.20 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | Stoke City v Middlesbrough | 3.80 | 3.80 | 2.08 |
| 14 Oct 18:45 | Norwich City v Southampton | 2.54 | 4.00 | 2.80 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | +8 | 20 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | +5 | 18 |
| 3 | West Ham | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | +11 | 16 |
| 4 | Stoke | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 16 |
| 5 | Wolverhampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +4 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | +3 | 14 |
| 7 | Birmingham | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | +2 | 14 |
| 8 | Millwall | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 14 |
| 9 | West Brom | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 14 |
| 10 | Bristol City | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 | Southampton | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | +10 | 13 |
| 12 | Charlton | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 13 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 12 |
| 14 | Sheffield Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 12 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 11 |
| 16 | Lincoln City | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 17 | Bolton | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 18 | Norwich | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -2 | 9 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 22 | Burnley | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 23 | Derby County | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 24 | Preston NE | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 4 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.16, with a 46% confidence rating.
Millwall are the market favourites, priced at 2.48 with LeoVegas, which implies about a 40 percent chance of victory, slightly ahead of Swansea City's implied 35 percent.
The draw is best priced at 3.5 with LeoVegas, implying a probability of roughly 29 percent for this Championship fixture.
No outright value picks against the match-result market met the threshold. The model's Over 2.5 Goals suggestion at 1.85 actually carries a negative 7.5 percent value edge, so it should be treated as a modest lean rather than a strong value bet.
Millwall vs Swansea City takes place Today · 18:45 in the Championship.
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