Championship · Today · 18:45 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Burnley are strong favourites at 1.75, implying roughly 57% win probability compared to Charlton's 4.8 price, which implies about 21%.
The draw is priced at 3.9, translating to an implied probability of around 26%, a reasonable gap given the favourite status of Burnley.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.78 carries 52% model confidence but a -7.17% value edge, indicating the price does not currently offer a market inefficiency in the bettor's favour.
No value picks against market consensus were identified for the match-result market in this fixture.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.3% | 8.15 |
| 1-0 | 11.0% | 9.06 |
| 2-1 | 9.2% | 10.92 |
| 2-0 | 8.2% | 12.14 |
| 0-1 | 8.2% | 12.17 |
| 0-0 | 7.4% | 13.51 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.49 and 1.11. These six scorelines cover 56% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlton Athletic to win | 5.90 | +6.7% | 18% | 57 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
| Bookmaker | 1 · BUR | X | 2 · CA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 1.69 | 4.10 | 5.90 |
| Betfair | 1.69 | 4.10 | 5.80 |
| Pinnacle | 1.65 | 4.00 | 5.55 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.66 | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| GTbets | 1.64 | 4.00 | 5.29 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.64 | 4.00 | 5.20 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Burnley head into this Championship meeting with Charlton Athletic as clear market favourites, with the best price on a home win at 1.75, implying a win probability of roughly 57%. Charlton are priced much longer at 4.8, which the market reads as just under 21% likelihood, while the draw sits at 3.9, around 26%. That spread points to a fixture where bookmakers expect Burnley to control proceedings, though Championship form can be unpredictable and the draw price keeps a draw firmly in play. Away from the match-result market, our model flags Over 2.5 goals at 1.78 as its recommended angle, carrying a 52% confidence level. Notably, this selection shows a negative value edge of -7.17%, meaning the market price does not currently look generous relative to that confidence figure, so it should be treated as a measured suggestion rather than a standout opportunity.
Verdict: The suggested play is Over 2.5 goals at 1.78, backed by 52% model confidence, though its negative value edge means it is not a clear-cut market mismatch. Treat it as a moderate-risk option rather than a confident value bet, and size any stake with care.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct 18:45 | Cardiff City v Watford | 1.72 | 4.50 | 5.20 |
| 13 Oct 18:45 | Bristol City v Blackburn Rovers | 2.16 | 3.60 | 3.85 |
| 13 Oct 18:45 | Millwall v Swansea City | 2.52 | 3.50 | 3.10 |
| 13 Oct 18:45 | Wrexham AFC v West Bromwich Albion | 2.38 | 3.55 | 3.35 |
| 13 Oct 18:45 | Wolverhampton Wanderers v Bolton Wanderers | 1.43 | 5.30 | 8.40 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | Birmingham City v Preston North End | 1.53 | 4.78 | 7.20 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | Stoke City v Middlesbrough | 3.80 | 3.80 | 2.08 |
| 14 Oct 18:45 | Norwich City v Southampton | 2.54 | 4.00 | 2.80 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | +8 | 20 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | +5 | 18 |
| 3 | West Ham | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | +11 | 16 |
| 4 | Stoke | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 16 |
| 5 | Wolverhampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +4 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | +3 | 14 |
| 7 | Birmingham | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | +2 | 14 |
| 8 | Millwall | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 14 |
| 9 | West Brom | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 14 |
| 10 | Bristol City | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 | Southampton | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | +10 | 13 |
| 12 | Charlton | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 13 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 12 |
| 14 | Sheffield Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 12 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 11 |
| 16 | Lincoln City | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 17 | Bolton | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 18 | Norwich | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -2 | 9 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 22 | Burnley | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 23 | Derby County | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 24 | Preston NE | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 4 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.95, with a 51% confidence rating.
Burnley are the clear favourites, priced at 1.75, which implies a win probability of about 57%. Charlton Athletic are outsiders at 4.8, implying roughly 21%.
The draw is available at 3.9, which implies an approximate 26% chance according to the market.
No match-result value picks met the threshold versus market consensus. The model's highlighted angle is Over 2.5 goals at 1.78, but it carries a negative value edge of -7.17%, so it is not flagged as strong value.
Burnley vs Charlton Athletic takes place Today · 18:45 in the Championship.
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