Championship · Today · 18:45 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | 9.7% | 10.33 |
| 1-1 | 8.8% | 11.31 |
| 2-0 | 8.0% | 12.55 |
| 1-0 | 7.3% | 13.74 |
| 3-1 | 7.1% | 14.16 |
| 2-2 | 5.9% | 17.01 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 2.19 and 1.22. These six scorelines cover 47% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · WW | X | 2 · BW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 1.43 | 5.30 | 8.40 |
| Betfair | 1.42 | 5.30 | 8.40 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.43 | 4.90 | 7.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.41 | 5.10 | 7.56 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.41 | 5.00 | 7.20 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.40 | 4.90 | 7.50 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
This Championship meeting at Molineux pairs Wolverhampton Wanderers against Bolton Wanderers, and the betting market leaves little doubt about who the oddsmakers favour. Wolves are priced as short as 1.4 with 1xBet, implying a win probability of roughly 71 percent, while Bolton drift out to 8.0 at LeoVegas, suggesting only about a 12.5 percent chance of an away victory. The draw sits at 5.25, pointing to roughly 19 percent. Those numbers paint a lopsided fixture on paper, with the hosts expected to dominate proceedings. Rather than back the outright result, our model points elsewhere: an Over 3.5 goals wager at 2.23, reflecting the idea that this could be a game with goals at both ends given the gap in class. That said, the model's own confidence sits at 42 percent against an implied probability above that, producing a negative value edge, so this pick should be treated as a measured angle rather than a standout opportunity.
Verdict:
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct 18:45 | Cardiff City v Watford | 1.72 | 4.50 | 5.20 |
| 13 Oct 18:45 | Burnley v Charlton Athletic | 1.69 | 4.10 | 5.90 |
| 13 Oct 18:45 | Bristol City v Blackburn Rovers | 2.16 | 3.60 | 3.85 |
| 13 Oct 18:45 | Millwall v Swansea City | 2.52 | 3.50 | 3.10 |
| 13 Oct 18:45 | Wrexham AFC v West Bromwich Albion | 2.38 | 3.55 | 3.35 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | Birmingham City v Preston North End | 1.53 | 4.78 | 7.20 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | Stoke City v Middlesbrough | 3.80 | 3.80 | 2.08 |
| 14 Oct 18:45 | Norwich City v Southampton | 2.54 | 4.00 | 2.80 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | +8 | 20 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | +5 | 18 |
| 3 | West Ham | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | +11 | 16 |
| 4 | Stoke | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 16 |
| 5 | Wolverhampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +4 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | +3 | 14 |
| 7 | Birmingham | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | +2 | 14 |
| 8 | Millwall | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 14 |
| 9 | West Brom | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 14 |
| 10 | Bristol City | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 | Southampton | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | +10 | 13 |
| 12 | Charlton | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 13 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 12 |
| 14 | Sheffield Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 12 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 11 |
| 16 | Lincoln City | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 17 | Bolton | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 18 | Norwich | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -2 | 9 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 22 | Burnley | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 23 | Derby County | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 24 | Preston NE | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 4 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.40, with a 40% confidence rating.
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Bolton Wanderers takes place Today · 18:45 in the Championship.
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