Championship · Today · 19:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Birmingham City are priced at 1.67 to win, implying just under 60 percent probability and making them clear market favourites.
Preston North End's 5.2 away price implies roughly 19 percent, with the draw at 4.1 implying about 24 percent, both suggesting longer-shot outcomes relative to a home win.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.72 carries an implied probability near 58 percent, yet the model's own confidence sits lower at 54 percent.
The value edge on the Over 2.5 pick is negative at minus 7.1 percent, meaning the model sees this price as slightly unfavourable rather than a clear market mismatch.
No value picks against the match-result market consensus were identified above the site's threshold for this fixture.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 12.4% | 8.07 |
| 1-1 | 12.0% | 8.34 |
| 2-0 | 9.8% | 10.26 |
| 2-1 | 9.4% | 10.59 |
| 0-0 | 7.9% | 12.71 |
| 0-1 | 7.6% | 13.12 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.57 and 0.97. These six scorelines cover 59% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Birmingham City's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · BC | X | 2 · PNE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 1.53 | 4.70 | 7.20 |
| Betfair | 1.52 | 4.70 | 7.20 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.49 | 4.60 | 6.75 |
| Pinnacle | 1.48 | 4.78 | 6.56 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.48 | 4.60 | 6.40 |
| Coolbet | 1.47 | 4.50 | 6.75 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Birmingham City host Preston North End in a Championship fixture where the betting market leaves little doubt about who is favoured. Best odds of 1.67 on a home win imply a probability of just under 60 percent for Birmingham, while Preston's 5.2 price points to roughly 19 percent, with the draw priced at 4.1, implying around 24 percent. That gap reflects a clear tilt toward the hosts, though the double-digit draw and away prices show the market still allows room for an upset or stalemate. Away from the match-result market, our model's featured angle for this game is Over 2.5 goals at 1.72, a price that implies close to 58 percent, though the model itself assigns a lower 54 percent confidence, with a value edge of minus 7.1 percent. That combination suggests the goals market is the more interesting discussion point here rather than a clear-cut result bet.
Verdict: The market strongly favours Birmingham City at home, but the standout angle here is Over 2.5 goals at 1.72. With model confidence at 54 percent against a 58 percent implied price and a negative 7.1 percent edge, this looks like a fair-to-slightly-unfavourable price rather than strong value, so stake accordingly and in moderation.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct 18:45 | Cardiff City v Watford | 1.72 | 4.50 | 5.20 |
| 13 Oct 18:45 | Burnley v Charlton Athletic | 1.69 | 4.10 | 5.90 |
| 13 Oct 18:45 | Bristol City v Blackburn Rovers | 2.16 | 3.60 | 3.85 |
| 13 Oct 18:45 | Millwall v Swansea City | 2.52 | 3.50 | 3.10 |
| 13 Oct 18:45 | Wrexham AFC v West Bromwich Albion | 2.38 | 3.55 | 3.35 |
| 13 Oct 18:45 | Wolverhampton Wanderers v Bolton Wanderers | 1.43 | 5.30 | 8.40 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | Stoke City v Middlesbrough | 3.80 | 3.80 | 2.08 |
| 14 Oct 18:45 | Norwich City v Southampton | 2.54 | 4.00 | 2.80 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | +8 | 20 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | +5 | 18 |
| 3 | West Ham | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | +11 | 16 |
| 4 | Stoke | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 16 |
| 5 | Wolverhampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +4 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | +3 | 14 |
| 7 | Birmingham | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | +2 | 14 |
| 8 | Millwall | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 14 |
| 9 | West Brom | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 14 |
| 10 | Bristol City | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 | Southampton | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | +10 | 13 |
| 12 | Charlton | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 13 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 12 |
| 14 | Sheffield Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 12 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 11 |
| 16 | Lincoln City | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 17 | Bolton | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 18 | Norwich | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -2 | 9 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 22 | Burnley | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 23 | Derby County | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 24 | Preston NE | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 4 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.77, with a 56% confidence rating.
Birmingham City are priced at 1.67 to win, which implies just under a 60 percent probability and makes them the clear market favourites over Preston North End at 5.2.
The draw is available at 4.1, implying roughly a 24 percent chance according to the best odds listed.
The Over 2.5 goals price of 1.72 implies about 58 percent probability, but the model's own confidence is lower at 54 percent with a negative 7.1 percent value edge, so it is not flagged as a clear value bet, just the recommended angle on offer.
Birmingham City vs Preston North End takes place Today · 19:00 in the Championship.
English 
