Championship · Today · 19:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Middlesbrough are priced at 1.97, giving them an implied win probability of just over 50%, the strongest single outcome on the match-result board.
Stoke City (3.70) and the draw (3.80) are closely matched in the odds, both implying probabilities in the mid-to-high 20% range.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.66 carries a market-implied confidence of 56%, but the model's own edge calculation comes in at -6.9%, meaning the price does not currently look favourable by the model's own measure.
No match-result selections cleared the value threshold versus market consensus, leaving the goals market as the only flagged pick for this fixture.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.5% | 8.02 |
| 0-1 | 10.7% | 9.36 |
| 1-2 | 8.8% | 11.31 |
| 1-0 | 8.8% | 11.36 |
| 0-2 | 7.6% | 13.21 |
| 0-0 | 7.5% | 13.28 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.17 and 1.42. These six scorelines cover 56% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Stoke City's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · SC | X | 2 · MID |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 3.80 | 3.80 | 2.08 |
| Matchbook | 3.80 | 3.80 | 2.08 |
| Pinnacle | 3.60 | 3.73 | 2.05 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 3.70 | 3.75 | 2.00 |
| Coolbet | 3.50 | 3.75 | 2.02 |
| Codere (IT) | 3.55 | 3.65 | 2.03 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Middlesbrough head to the bet365 Stadium as clear favourites for this Championship clash with Stoke City, with the market pricing them at 1.97 for a straight win - implying a win probability of just over 50%. Stoke drift out to 3.70 (around 27% implied), while the draw sits at 3.80 (roughly 26% implied), underlining how the bookmakers expect Boro to edge a competitive match rather than a one-sided affair. Away from the result market, the model's attention turns to goals, flagging Over 2.5 at 1.66 as the standout angle for this fixture. With no side markets clearing the value threshold on the win/draw/win book, the goals line is where the most actionable signal in this dataset currently sits, albeit with a caveat worth noting before staking.
Verdict: Middlesbrough are market favourites, but the real talking point is Over 2.5 goals at 1.66. Despite a 56% implied confidence, the model's own -6.9% edge suggests this isn't a clear value play, so it should be treated as a moderate-risk option rather than a strong recommendation.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct 18:45 | Cardiff City v Watford | 1.72 | 4.50 | 5.20 |
| 13 Oct 18:45 | Burnley v Charlton Athletic | 1.69 | 4.10 | 5.90 |
| 13 Oct 18:45 | Bristol City v Blackburn Rovers | 2.16 | 3.60 | 3.85 |
| 13 Oct 18:45 | Millwall v Swansea City | 2.52 | 3.50 | 3.10 |
| 13 Oct 18:45 | Wrexham AFC v West Bromwich Albion | 2.38 | 3.55 | 3.35 |
| 13 Oct 18:45 | Wolverhampton Wanderers v Bolton Wanderers | 1.43 | 5.30 | 8.40 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | Birmingham City v Preston North End | 1.53 | 4.78 | 7.20 |
| 14 Oct 18:45 | Norwich City v Southampton | 2.54 | 4.00 | 2.80 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | +8 | 20 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | +5 | 18 |
| 3 | West Ham | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | +11 | 16 |
| 4 | Stoke | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 16 |
| 5 | Wolverhampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +4 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | +3 | 14 |
| 7 | Birmingham | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | +2 | 14 |
| 8 | Millwall | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 14 |
| 9 | West Brom | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 14 |
| 10 | Bristol City | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 | Southampton | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | +10 | 13 |
| 12 | Charlton | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 13 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 12 |
| 14 | Sheffield Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 12 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 11 |
| 16 | Lincoln City | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 17 | Bolton | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 18 | Norwich | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -2 | 9 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 22 | Burnley | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 23 | Derby County | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 24 | Preston NE | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 4 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.77, with a 54% confidence rating.
Middlesbrough are favourites according to the odds, priced at 1.97 for a win, which implies a win probability of just over 50%.
The draw is priced at 3.80, implying a probability of roughly 26%, only marginally longer than Stoke City's own odds.
The model recommends Over 2.5 goals at 1.66 with 56% implied confidence, but its own calculated edge is -6.9%, suggesting the price is not clearly favourable despite being the flagged pick.
Stoke City vs Middlesbrough takes place Today · 19:00 in the Championship.
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