Championship · Tomorrow · 18:45 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Norwich City are priced at 2.24 to win, giving them an implied probability of about 44.6 percent, the strongest of the three outcomes.
Southampton's 3.05 price implies roughly 32.8 percent, while the draw at 3.85 implies about 26 percent, keeping the match-result market fairly open behind the favourite.
The recommended Under 3.5 Goals bet at 1.57 carries a market-implied probability near 63.7 percent against a model confidence of 59 percent, producing a value edge of minus 7.53 percent.
No match-result selections cleared the site's value threshold, so the goals total market is the only angle flagged from this fixture's pricing.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.3% | 9.71 |
| 1-2 | 9.1% | 10.96 |
| 2-1 | 7.4% | 13.53 |
| 0-1 | 7.2% | 13.91 |
| 2-2 | 6.5% | 15.29 |
| 0-2 | 6.4% | 15.72 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.43 and 1.77. These six scorelines cover 47% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Norwich City's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · NC | X | 2 · SOU |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 2.54 | 4.00 | 2.76 |
| Betfair | 2.52 | 4.00 | 2.74 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.43 | 3.70 | 2.80 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.43 | 3.75 | 2.70 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.41 | 3.77 | 2.71 |
| Pinnacle | 2.41 | 3.76 | 2.71 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Norwich City host Southampton in a Championship meeting where the betting market installs the Canaries as clear favourites. Best prices have Norwich at 2.24, which implies a win probability of roughly 44.6 percent, well ahead of Southampton's 3.05 (about 32.8 percent) and the draw at 3.85 (about 26 percent). Those numbers point to a competitive match-result market but one where the home side is expected to come out on top more often than not. Away from the win-draw-win market, our model's standout angle is in the goals market, backing Under 3.5 Goals at 1.57 with a stated confidence of 59 percent. That price implies a break-even probability near 63.7 percent, so while the model leans toward a lower-scoring game, the pricing itself carries a modest negative value edge, meaning the odds are not obviously generous relative to the model's own estimate.
Verdict: The Under 3.5 Goals pick at 1.57 is the only recommendation from this fixture, reflecting a lean toward a contained scoreline rather than a high-scoring game. With a negative value edge of 7.53 percent, this is not presented as a clear market inefficiency, so stakes should be modest and bankroll discipline maintained.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct 18:45 | Cardiff City v Watford | 1.72 | 4.50 | 5.20 |
| 13 Oct 18:45 | Burnley v Charlton Athletic | 1.69 | 4.10 | 5.90 |
| 13 Oct 18:45 | Bristol City v Blackburn Rovers | 2.16 | 3.60 | 3.85 |
| 13 Oct 18:45 | Millwall v Swansea City | 2.52 | 3.50 | 3.10 |
| 13 Oct 18:45 | Wrexham AFC v West Bromwich Albion | 2.38 | 3.55 | 3.35 |
| 13 Oct 18:45 | Wolverhampton Wanderers v Bolton Wanderers | 1.43 | 5.30 | 8.40 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | Birmingham City v Preston North End | 1.53 | 4.78 | 7.20 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | Stoke City v Middlesbrough | 3.80 | 3.80 | 2.08 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | +8 | 20 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | +5 | 18 |
| 3 | West Ham | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | +11 | 16 |
| 4 | Stoke | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 16 |
| 5 | Wolverhampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +4 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | +3 | 14 |
| 7 | Birmingham | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | +2 | 14 |
| 8 | Millwall | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 14 |
| 9 | West Brom | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 14 |
| 10 | Bristol City | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 | Southampton | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | +10 | 13 |
| 12 | Charlton | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 13 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 12 |
| 14 | Sheffield Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 12 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 11 |
| 16 | Lincoln City | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 17 | Bolton | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 18 | Norwich | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -2 | 9 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 22 | Burnley | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 23 | Derby County | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 24 | Preston NE | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 4 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.65, with a 58% confidence rating.
Norwich City are favourites based on the odds, priced at 2.24, which implies roughly a 44.6 percent chance of victory, ahead of Southampton at 3.05 and the draw at 3.85.
The best available draw price listed is 3.85 at LeoVegas (SE), implying an approximate 26 percent probability of a drawn result.
No match-result selections met the site's value threshold. The only flagged pick, Under 3.5 Goals at 1.57, actually shows a slightly negative value edge of minus 7.53 percent, so any value here is limited rather than clear cut.
Norwich City vs Southampton takes place Tomorrow · 18:45 in the Championship.
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