La Liga · Sat · 14:15 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Villarreal's 1.52 price implies close to 66 percent win probability, the strongest signal in this match's odds set.
Elche CF's 6.5 price implies roughly 15 percent, reflecting the market's view of them as clear underdogs.
The draw at 5.2 implies around 19 percent, keeping it as a live but secondary outcome behind a home win.
The Over 3.25 goals selection at 1.92 shows a -4.0 percent value edge, meaning the model's own probability estimate sits slightly below the price's break-even requirement.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | 9.7% | 10.34 |
| 2-0 | 8.7% | 11.45 |
| 1-1 | 8.3% | 12.05 |
| 3-1 | 7.5% | 13.33 |
| 1-0 | 7.5% | 13.35 |
| 3-0 | 6.8% | 14.75 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 2.33 and 1.11. These six scorelines cover 48% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Villarreal's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · VIL | X | 2 · EC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.51 | 4.88 | 6.73 |
| Matchbook | 1.46 | 5.20 | 6.60 |
| Betfair | 1.46 | 5.10 | 6.60 |
| Coolbet | 1.50 | 4.85 | 6.25 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.47 | 5.00 | 6.50 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.48 | 5.00 | 6.25 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Villarreal host Elche CF in a La Liga fixture where the betting market leaves little doubt about the expected outcome. Villarreal's price of 1.52 with 1xBet implies a win probability of roughly 66 percent, making them clear favourites on paper, while Elche's 6.5 with Tipico corresponds to just under 15 percent. The draw, priced at 5.2, sits at around 19 percent, suggesting bookmakers see this as a fairly one-sided affair rather than a tight tactical battle. Away from the result market, our model flags an alternative angle: Over 3.25 goals at 1.92 with Pinnacle, which carries an implied break-even probability near 52 percent against a modelled confidence of 50 percent. That gap produces a slightly negative value edge of -4.0 percent, meaning this pick is presented for context rather than as a standout market inefficiency. No side of the standard 1X2 market currently clears our value threshold, so this preview leans on odds-derived probabilities alone.
Verdict: The recommended Over 3.25 goals bet at 1.92 is more of a watch-list note than a confident value play, given its -4.0 percent edge and roughly 50 percent modelled probability against a 52 percent break-even requirement. It is a moderate-to-higher-risk goals market bet rather than a mispriced opportunity, so stake sizing should reflect that caution.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 19:00 | Deportivo La Coruña v Levante | 2.18 | 3.62 | 3.75 |
| 17 Oct 12:00 | Espanyol v Atlético Madrid | 5.10 | 3.98 | 1.85 |
| 17 Oct 16:30 | Real Betis v Barcelona | 6.40 | 6.00 | 1.49 |
| 17 Oct 19:00 | Valencia v Athletic Bilbao | 3.65 | 3.51 | 2.28 |
| 18 Oct 12:00 | CA Osasuna v Real Racing Club de Santander | 2.08 | 3.75 | 3.95 |
| 18 Oct 14:15 | Celta Vigo v Alavés | 2.22 | 3.48 | 3.78 |
| 18 Oct 16:30 | Málaga v Real Sociedad | 3.40 | 3.70 | 2.29 |
| 18 Oct 19:00 | Real Madrid v Sevilla | 1.30 | 7.00 | 11.50 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barça | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +27 | 24 |
| 2 | Atleti | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +10 | 19 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 19 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | +11 | 18 |
| 5 | Sevilla FC | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 14 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 | Alavés | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +4 | 11 |
| 8 | Deportivo | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 10 |
| 9 | Celta | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +2 | 8 |
| 10 | Athletic | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 8 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 | Getafe | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 | Santander | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 | Levante | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 19 | Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 20 | Málaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 3.25 goals at odds of 1.98, with a 49% confidence rating.
Villarreal are clear favourites according to the odds, priced at 1.52 with 1xBet, which implies close to a 66 percent win probability compared to Elche CF's roughly 15 percent.
The draw is priced at 5.2 with Tipico, which implies an approximate 19 percent probability, keeping it as a secondary but plausible outcome behind a Villarreal win.
No selection in the 1X2 market clears the value threshold. The model's featured pick, Over 3.25 goals at 1.92, actually shows a slightly negative -4.0 percent edge, so it should be treated with caution rather than as a confirmed value opportunity.
Villarreal vs Elche CF takes place Sat · 14:15 in the La Liga.
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