La Liga · Fri · 19:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Deportivo are market favourites at 2.17, implying roughly 46 percent win probability, well ahead of Levante's 28 percent at 3.61.
The draw is priced at the same 3.61 as the Levante win, suggesting the market sees both outcomes as similarly likely.
The bookmakers' combined round-robin percentages sit near 101.5 percent, indicating a fairly tight overround for this match-result market.
The recommended Under 2.5 goals bet at 1.98 carries an implied probability of about 50.5 percent versus a 50 percent model confidence, a negative edge of roughly -1.5 percent.
| Bookmaker | 1 · DLC | X | 2 · LEV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 2.18 | 3.55 | 3.75 |
| Matchbook | 2.18 | 3.55 | 3.75 |
| 1xBet | 2.17 | 3.62 | 3.60 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.12 | 3.60 | 3.65 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.10 | 3.60 | 3.65 |
| Coolbet | 2.10 | 3.60 | 3.60 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Deportivo La Coruña host Levante in a La Liga fixture where the betting market leans clearly toward the home side. At best available prices, Deportivo are quoted at 2.17, which implies a win probability of roughly 46 percent, while Levante's 3.61 and the draw at the same 3.61 each point to around 28 percent. That spread shows a moderate but not overwhelming home favourite, with the draw and away win priced almost identically. Away from the match-result market, our model's featured angle is Under 2.5 goals at 1.98, implying a break-even probability near 50.5 percent against a modelled confidence of 50 percent. That slim gap produces a small negative value edge of about -1.5 percent, meaning the numbers do not strongly favour backing it purely on value grounds, though it remains a reasonable point of interest for goal-line bettors.
Verdict: The data points to Deportivo as moderate favourites, but the goals market is where our model focuses, tipping Under 2.5 at 1.98. With a slightly negative value edge, this is not a high-confidence value play; it reflects a close call between market pricing and model expectation, so stake sizing should stay conservative.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct 12:00 | Espanyol v Atlético Madrid | 5.10 | 3.98 | 1.85 |
| 17 Oct 14:15 | Villarreal v Elche CF | 1.51 | 5.20 | 6.73 |
| 17 Oct 16:30 | Real Betis v Barcelona | 6.40 | 6.00 | 1.49 |
| 17 Oct 19:00 | Valencia v Athletic Bilbao | 3.65 | 3.51 | 2.28 |
| 18 Oct 12:00 | CA Osasuna v Real Racing Club de Santander | 2.08 | 3.75 | 3.95 |
| 18 Oct 14:15 | Celta Vigo v Alavés | 2.22 | 3.48 | 3.78 |
| 18 Oct 16:30 | Málaga v Real Sociedad | 3.40 | 3.70 | 2.29 |
| 18 Oct 19:00 | Real Madrid v Sevilla | 1.30 | 7.00 | 11.50 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barça | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +27 | 24 |
| 2 | Atleti | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +10 | 19 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 19 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | +11 | 18 |
| 5 | Sevilla FC | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 14 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 | Alavés | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +4 | 11 |
| 8 | Deportivo | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 10 |
| 9 | Celta | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +2 | 8 |
| 10 | Athletic | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 8 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 | Getafe | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 | Santander | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 | Levante | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 19 | Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 20 | Málaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.98, with a 50% confidence rating.
Deportivo La Coruña are priced at 2.17, making them favourites, which implies roughly a 46 percent win probability compared with about 28 percent for both Levante and the draw.
The draw is available at 3.61, the same price as a Levante win, implying an approximate 28 percent probability for either outcome.
The Under 2.5 goals price of 1.98 implies about a 50.5 percent probability, slightly above the model's 50 percent confidence, giving a small negative edge of roughly -1.5 percent rather than a clear value advantage.
Deportivo La Coruña vs Levante takes place Fri · 19:00 in the La Liga.
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