La Liga · Sun · 12:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Osasuna are priced at 1.96 to win, implying roughly 51 percent probability and establishing them as clear market favourites.
Racing Santander's 4.74 price implies about 21 percent, but the model's fair probability of 22 percent creates a modest 3.86 percent edge on the away win.
The draw is priced at 3.80, implying around 26 percent, keeping it a live but secondary outcome behind the home win.
The recommended Over 2.75 goals bet at 2.02 carries 48 percent model confidence but shows a negative 3.98 percent edge, suggesting the price is not clearly favourable despite the recommendation.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | 9.3% | 10.72 |
| 1-1 | 8.8% | 11.34 |
| 2-0 | 6.7% | 14.95 |
| 3-1 | 6.6% | 15.20 |
| 2-2 | 6.5% | 15.38 |
| 1-0 | 6.3% | 15.80 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 2.12 and 1.39. These six scorelines cover 44% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · CO | X | 2 · RRC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 2.08 | 3.75 | 3.80 |
| Matchbook | 2.08 | 3.75 | 3.80 |
| 1xBet | 2.04 | 3.72 | 3.88 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.02 | 3.60 | 3.95 |
| Coolbet | 2.05 | 3.70 | 3.70 |
| Pinnacle | 2.01 | 3.63 | 3.82 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
La Liga action brings together CA Osasuna and Real Racing Club de Santander, with the betting market clearly favouring the hosts. Osasuna are priced at 1.96 for the win, which implies a probability of just over 51 percent, making them clear favourites on paper. Racing Santander sit at the other end of the spectrum at 4.74, translating to roughly 21 percent implied probability, while the draw is priced at 3.80, or around 26 percent. Beyond the result market, our model flags Over 2.75 goals at 2.02 as its recommended angle, though the associated value edge comes in slightly negative at -3.98 percent, with a market-implied confidence of 48 percent. Separately, a value discrepancy appears on Racing Santander's outright price, where the fair probability estimate of 22 percent sits marginally above the market's implied 21 percent, producing a positive edge of 3.86 percent.
Verdict: The Over 2.75 goals selection at 2.02 reflects a reasonably balanced view on scoring in this fixture, but its negative edge means the price does not clearly favour bettors. Combined with Racing Santander's small edge as outsiders, this looks like a moderate-risk match with no standout certainty either side, so measured stakes are advisable.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 19:00 | Deportivo La Coruña v Levante | 2.18 | 3.62 | 3.75 |
| 17 Oct 12:00 | Espanyol v Atlético Madrid | 5.10 | 3.98 | 1.85 |
| 17 Oct 14:15 | Villarreal v Elche CF | 1.51 | 5.20 | 6.73 |
| 17 Oct 16:30 | Real Betis v Barcelona | 6.40 | 6.00 | 1.49 |
| 17 Oct 19:00 | Valencia v Athletic Bilbao | 3.65 | 3.51 | 2.28 |
| 18 Oct 14:15 | Celta Vigo v Alavés | 2.22 | 3.48 | 3.78 |
| 18 Oct 16:30 | Málaga v Real Sociedad | 3.40 | 3.70 | 2.29 |
| 18 Oct 19:00 | Real Madrid v Sevilla | 1.30 | 7.00 | 11.50 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barça | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +27 | 24 |
| 2 | Atleti | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +10 | 19 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 19 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | +11 | 18 |
| 5 | Sevilla FC | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 14 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 | Alavés | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +4 | 11 |
| 8 | Deportivo | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 10 |
| 9 | Celta | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +2 | 8 |
| 10 | Athletic | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 8 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 | Getafe | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 | Santander | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 | Levante | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 19 | Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 20 | Málaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 2.75 goals at odds of 2.02, with a 48% confidence rating.
Osasuna are the clear favourites according to the odds, priced at 1.96, which implies roughly a 51 percent chance of winning.
The draw is available at 3.80, implying an approximate 26 percent probability based on the market data provided.
There is a small positive edge of 3.86 percent on Racing Santander's outright price at 4.74 versus their fair probability of 22 percent. The model's Over 2.75 goals recommendation, however, carries a slightly negative edge of -3.98 percent, so it should not be treated as a strong value play.
CA Osasuna vs Real Racing Club de Santander takes place Sun · 12:00 in the La Liga.
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