La Liga · Sat · 12:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Atlético Madrid are priced at 1.78, implying close to 56 percent win probability and standing out as the clear market favourite.
Espanyol's best price of 4.84 implies about 21 percent, matching the model's fair probability estimate and producing a modest 3.7 percent edge.
The draw at 4.02 implies roughly 25 percent probability, a meaningful share of the market's overall expectation for this fixture.
The model's recommended Over 2.75 goals bet at 1.89 shows about 51 percent implied confidence but carries a negative 4.27 percent edge, tempering its appeal as a value play.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.1% | 8.26 |
| 0-1 | 9.8% | 10.17 |
| 1-2 | 9.0% | 11.16 |
| 1-0 | 8.2% | 12.22 |
| 2-1 | 7.5% | 13.40 |
| 0-2 | 7.3% | 13.76 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.23 and 1.48. These six scorelines cover 54% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Espanyol to win | 5.10 | +7.3% | 21% | 58 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
W/D/L shown from Espanyol's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · ESP | X | 2 · AM |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 5.10 | 3.90 | 1.78 |
| 1xBet | 4.57 | 3.90 | 1.85 |
| Unibet (NL) | 4.60 | 3.90 | 1.80 |
| Coolbet | 4.80 | 3.95 | 1.76 |
| BetOnline.ag | 4.65 | 3.95 | 1.76 |
| Pinnacle | 4.75 | 3.98 | 1.74 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Atlético Madrid travel to face Espanyol in a La Liga fixture where the betting market leaves little doubt about the favourite. Best odds of 1.78 on Atlético imply a win probability of around 56 percent, comfortably ahead of Espanyol's 4.84 price, which points to roughly 21 percent market confidence in the hosts. The draw, priced at 4.02, sits at about 25 percent implied probability, making it a live outcome by the numbers even if it is not the headline pick. Away from the result market, our model flags Over 2.75 goals at 1.89, with the price translating to roughly 51 percent confidence, though the calculated value edge on that line is slightly negative at -4.27 percent, so it is not a clear-cut value angle despite being the model's top recommendation. Meanwhile, Espanyol's price of 4.84 does carry a modest 3.7 percent edge against the model's 21 percent fair probability estimate, worth noting for value-focused bettors.
Verdict: The Over 2.75 goals selection at 1.89 reflects roughly 51 percent market confidence, but its -4.27 percent edge means the price does not clearly favour bettors by the model's own calculation. Atlético remain strong favourites in the result market at 1.78. Any stake here should be modest, treating this as a moderate-risk selection given the mixed signals in the data.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 19:00 | Deportivo La Coruña v Levante | 2.18 | 3.62 | 3.75 |
| 17 Oct 14:15 | Villarreal v Elche CF | 1.51 | 5.20 | 6.73 |
| 17 Oct 16:30 | Real Betis v Barcelona | 6.40 | 6.00 | 1.49 |
| 17 Oct 19:00 | Valencia v Athletic Bilbao | 3.65 | 3.51 | 2.28 |
| 18 Oct 12:00 | CA Osasuna v Real Racing Club de Santander | 2.08 | 3.75 | 3.95 |
| 18 Oct 14:15 | Celta Vigo v Alavés | 2.22 | 3.48 | 3.78 |
| 18 Oct 16:30 | Málaga v Real Sociedad | 3.40 | 3.70 | 2.29 |
| 18 Oct 19:00 | Real Madrid v Sevilla | 1.30 | 7.00 | 11.50 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barça | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +27 | 24 |
| 2 | Atleti | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +10 | 19 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 19 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | +11 | 18 |
| 5 | Sevilla FC | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 14 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 | Alavés | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +4 | 11 |
| 8 | Deportivo | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 10 |
| 9 | Celta | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +2 | 8 |
| 10 | Athletic | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 8 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 | Getafe | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 | Santander | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 | Levante | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 19 | Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 20 | Málaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.75 goals at odds of 2.05, with a 47% confidence rating.
Atlético Madrid are clear favourites at best odds of 1.78, implying about 56 percent win probability, compared with Espanyol's 4.84 (around 21 percent) and the draw at 4.02 (about 25 percent).
The draw is available at 4.02, which implies roughly 25 percent probability according to the current market pricing.
The data shows a modest 3.7 percent edge on Espanyol at 4.84 against a fair probability of 21 percent, while the model's highlighted Over 2.75 goals bet at 1.89 actually carries a slightly negative edge of -4.27 percent, so the value signals across the market are mixed.
Espanyol vs Atlético Madrid takes place Sat · 12:00 in the La Liga.
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