La Liga · Sat · 19:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Athletic Bilbao are market favourites at 2.17, implying roughly 46 percent win probability, against Valencia's 3.71 (about 27 percent).
The draw at 3.51 (around 28.5 percent implied) is priced closely enough to Valencia's own odds to suggest the match is not viewed as one-sided.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 2.08 carries 47 percent implied confidence but a slightly negative value edge of -1.53 percent, meaning the market is roughly efficient on this line.
No value picks cleared the threshold against market consensus, indicating the result market itself offers no clear mispricing based on the data available.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.5% | 7.97 |
| 1-0 | 11.0% | 9.06 |
| 2-1 | 8.9% | 11.27 |
| 0-1 | 8.9% | 11.27 |
| 2-0 | 7.8% | 12.80 |
| 0-0 | 7.8% | 12.80 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.41 and 1.14. These six scorelines cover 57% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Valencia's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · VAL | X | 2 · AB |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.47 | 3.51 | 2.26 |
| Betfair | 3.40 | 3.40 | 2.28 |
| Matchbook | 3.40 | 3.40 | 2.28 |
| Unibet (NL) | 3.65 | 3.50 | 2.14 |
| Coolbet | 3.50 | 3.45 | 2.20 |
| Pinnacle | 3.36 | 3.39 | 2.27 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Valencia host Athletic Bilbao in a La Liga fixture where the betting market leans toward the visitors. Athletic Bilbao are priced at 2.17 with 1xBet, which implies a probability of roughly 46 percent, making them the favourites on paper. Valencia sit further out at 3.71 (about 27 percent implied), while the draw is priced at 3.51, implying around 28.5 percent. Those numbers point to a fairly open contest rather than a one-sided affair, with the draw almost as live a possibility as a Valencia win. Away from the result market, our model's recommended angle for this game is on goals rather than outcome: Over 2.5 goals at 2.08 with 1xBet, which carries a market-implied confidence of 47 percent. The value edge on that selection is slightly negative at -1.53 percent, so it should be viewed as a reasoned lean rather than a strong edge play. No standout value picks against the market consensus were identified for this fixture.
Verdict: The Over 2.5 goals selection at 2.08 is the closest thing to a structured angle here, but with a -1.53 percent edge it is not a clear market inefficiency, just a moderately backed lean. Treat it as a measured, risk-aware option rather than a confident value bet, and size stakes accordingly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 19:00 | Deportivo La Coruña v Levante | 2.18 | 3.62 | 3.75 |
| 17 Oct 12:00 | Espanyol v Atlético Madrid | 5.10 | 3.98 | 1.85 |
| 17 Oct 14:15 | Villarreal v Elche CF | 1.51 | 5.20 | 6.73 |
| 17 Oct 16:30 | Real Betis v Barcelona | 6.40 | 6.00 | 1.49 |
| 18 Oct 12:00 | CA Osasuna v Real Racing Club de Santander | 2.08 | 3.75 | 3.95 |
| 18 Oct 14:15 | Celta Vigo v Alavés | 2.22 | 3.48 | 3.78 |
| 18 Oct 16:30 | Málaga v Real Sociedad | 3.40 | 3.70 | 2.29 |
| 18 Oct 19:00 | Real Madrid v Sevilla | 1.30 | 7.00 | 11.50 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barça | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +27 | 24 |
| 2 | Atleti | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +10 | 19 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 19 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | +11 | 18 |
| 5 | Sevilla FC | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 14 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 | Alavés | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +4 | 11 |
| 8 | Deportivo | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 10 |
| 9 | Celta | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +2 | 8 |
| 10 | Athletic | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 8 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 | Getafe | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 | Santander | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 | Levante | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 19 | Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 20 | Málaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.86, with a 53% confidence rating.
Athletic Bilbao are favourites according to the odds, priced at 2.17 with 1xBet, which implies roughly a 46 percent chance of winning. Valencia are priced higher at 3.71, implying about 27 percent.
The draw is priced at 3.51 with 1xBet, which implies an approximate 28.5 percent probability, sitting close to Valencia's own win probability.
No value picks against the market consensus met the site's threshold for this game. The main flagged bet is Over 2.5 goals at 2.08, but it carries a slightly negative value edge of -1.53 percent, so it should be treated as a reasoned lean rather than a strong value opportunity.
Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao takes place Sat · 19:00 in the La Liga.
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