La Liga · Sun · 16:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Real Sociedad's 2.18 price implies close to 46 percent win probability, making them the clearer favourite over Málaga's 28 percent.
The draw at 3.71 (about 27 percent implied) is priced only marginally behind Málaga's own win chance, reflecting a competitive but not tightly balanced match.
The Under 2.75 goals selection at 1.86 carries roughly 51 percent implied confidence from the model, though its calculated value edge is slightly negative at -4.33 percent.
No match-result selection currently clears the site's value threshold against market consensus, so no side bet is being highlighted this week.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.4% | 8.08 |
| 0-1 | 9.9% | 10.11 |
| 1-0 | 8.8% | 11.31 |
| 1-2 | 8.6% | 11.56 |
| 2-1 | 7.7% | 12.94 |
| 0-0 | 7.1% | 14.14 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.25 and 1.40. These six scorelines cover 55% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · MÁL | X | 2 · RS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 3.40 | 3.70 | 2.22 |
| 1xBet | 3.29 | 3.63 | 2.29 |
| Betfair | 3.40 | 3.65 | 2.22 |
| Unibet (SE) | 3.35 | 3.55 | 2.25 |
| Unibet (NL) | 3.35 | 3.55 | 2.23 |
| Coolbet | 3.15 | 3.70 | 2.25 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Real Sociedad head to La Liga's Málaga fixture as the clear market favourites, with their best price of 2.18 implying a win probability of roughly 46 percent. Málaga, at 3.51, are given closer to 28 percent, while the draw at 3.71 sits just behind them at around 27 percent. That spread points to a moderately one-sided match on paper, though the gap between the draw and the underdog price suggests the home side isn't dismissed entirely by bookmakers. Away from the result market, our model leans toward a low-scoring affair, flagging Under 2.75 goals at 1.86 with the market pricing that outcome at roughly 51 percent likelihood. No side of the result market currently clears our value threshold, so this preview focuses on the goals total as the more data-supported angle for La Liga bettors weighing this fixture.
Verdict: The Under 2.75 goals pick at 1.86 is the only data-supported angle here, backed by a modest 51 percent implied confidence, though its negative edge means it isn't a standout value play. Treat it as a measured, low-conviction option rather than a strong lean, and stake accordingly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 19:00 | Deportivo La Coruña v Levante | 2.18 | 3.62 | 3.75 |
| 17 Oct 12:00 | Espanyol v Atlético Madrid | 5.10 | 3.98 | 1.85 |
| 17 Oct 14:15 | Villarreal v Elche CF | 1.51 | 5.20 | 6.73 |
| 17 Oct 16:30 | Real Betis v Barcelona | 6.40 | 6.00 | 1.49 |
| 17 Oct 19:00 | Valencia v Athletic Bilbao | 3.65 | 3.51 | 2.28 |
| 18 Oct 12:00 | CA Osasuna v Real Racing Club de Santander | 2.08 | 3.75 | 3.95 |
| 18 Oct 14:15 | Celta Vigo v Alavés | 2.22 | 3.48 | 3.78 |
| 18 Oct 19:00 | Real Madrid v Sevilla | 1.30 | 7.00 | 11.50 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barça | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +27 | 24 |
| 2 | Atleti | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +10 | 19 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 19 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | +11 | 18 |
| 5 | Sevilla FC | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 14 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 | Alavés | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +4 | 11 |
| 8 | Deportivo | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 10 |
| 9 | Celta | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +2 | 8 |
| 10 | Athletic | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 8 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 | Getafe | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 | Santander | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 | Levante | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 19 | Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 20 | Málaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.75 goals at odds of 2.03, with a 48% confidence rating.
Real Sociedad are favourites based on the best available price of 2.18, implying roughly a 46 percent win probability, compared with Málaga's 28 percent at 3.51.
The best draw price is 3.71, which implies an approximate 27 percent chance of the match ending level.
None of the match-result prices currently clear the value threshold against market consensus. The one flagged angle is Under 2.75 goals at 1.86, though its edge is slightly negative at -4.33 percent, so it should be viewed as a modest rather than strong opportunity.
Málaga vs Real Sociedad takes place Sun · 16:30 in the La Liga.
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