La Liga · Sun · 19:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Real Madrid's 1.26 price implies close to 79% win probability, reflecting a strong market favourite in this La Liga clash.
Sevilla's 12.5 odds imply only about 8% winning chance, underlining the scale of the gap between the two sides in the eyes of bookmakers.
The draw at 7.8 implies roughly 13%, a modest but non-trivial slice of the market's expectations.
The Over 3.5 goals recommendation at 1.95 carries a -1.51% value edge, meaning the model sees it as marginally overpriced relative to its own probability estimate.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | 11.2% | 8.94 |
| 2-1 | 9.4% | 10.63 |
| 1-0 | 9.2% | 10.92 |
| 3-0 | 9.1% | 11.00 |
| 1-1 | 7.7% | 12.97 |
| 3-1 | 7.7% | 13.05 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 2.44 and 0.84. These six scorelines cover 54% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Real Madrid's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · RM | X | 2 · SEV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 1.28 | 7.00 | 11.50 |
| Matchbook | 1.28 | 7.00 | 11.50 |
| 1xBet | 1.30 | 6.61 | 10.70 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.27 | 6.75 | 11.50 |
| Coolbet | 1.29 | 6.50 | 10.00 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.25 | 6.75 | 11.50 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Real Madrid's home meeting with Sevilla in La Liga sees the hosts installed as heavy favourites by the market. At 1.26 for a Real Madrid win, the implied probability sits close to 79%, while Sevilla's 12.5 price points to roughly 8% and the draw at 7.8 implies about 13%. Those numbers paint a fixture the market expects to be one-sided, with little room priced in for an upset or a stalemate. Away from the match-result market, our model flags Over 3.5 goals at 1.95 as its recommended angle, built on the assumption that a dominant Real Madrid side could rack up goals against Sevilla. That price implies a 51% chance of five or more goals combined, though the model's own edge calculation shows this sits slightly below fair value once market pricing is accounted for.
Verdict: The recommended Over 3.5 goals bet at 1.95 reflects a plausible high-scoring scenario given Real Madrid's short odds, but the slightly negative value edge means it is not a clear-cut market inefficiency. Treat it as a moderate-risk goals angle rather than a confident value play, and size stakes accordingly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 19:00 | Deportivo La Coruña v Levante | 2.18 | 3.62 | 3.75 |
| 17 Oct 12:00 | Espanyol v Atlético Madrid | 5.10 | 3.98 | 1.85 |
| 17 Oct 14:15 | Villarreal v Elche CF | 1.51 | 5.20 | 6.73 |
| 17 Oct 16:30 | Real Betis v Barcelona | 6.40 | 6.00 | 1.49 |
| 17 Oct 19:00 | Valencia v Athletic Bilbao | 3.65 | 3.51 | 2.28 |
| 18 Oct 12:00 | CA Osasuna v Real Racing Club de Santander | 2.08 | 3.75 | 3.95 |
| 18 Oct 14:15 | Celta Vigo v Alavés | 2.22 | 3.48 | 3.78 |
| 18 Oct 16:30 | Málaga v Real Sociedad | 3.40 | 3.70 | 2.29 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barça | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +27 | 24 |
| 2 | Atleti | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +10 | 19 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 19 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | +11 | 18 |
| 5 | Sevilla FC | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 14 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 | Alavés | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +4 | 11 |
| 8 | Deportivo | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 10 |
| 9 | Celta | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +2 | 8 |
| 10 | Athletic | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 8 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 | Getafe | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 | Santander | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 | Levante | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 19 | Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 20 | Málaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.09, with a 48% confidence rating.
Real Madrid are strong favourites, priced at 1.26, which implies close to a 79% chance of winning according to the market.
The draw is priced at 7.8, implying an estimated probability of around 13%.
No standout value picks against market consensus were found above the threshold; the model's Over 3.5 goals suggestion at 1.95 carries a slight negative edge of -1.51%, so it should be seen as a plausible angle rather than a confirmed value bet.
Real Madrid vs Sevilla takes place Sun · 19:00 in the La Liga.
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