La Liga · Sun · 14:15 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Celta Vigo are the clear market favourites at 2.06, implying close to a 49% win probability compared to Alavés' 24% at 4.11
The draw is priced at 3.5, translating to roughly 29% implied probability, keeping the match-result market from being one-sided
The recommended Over 2.25 goals bet at 1.85 carries 52% implied confidence but a negative value edge of -3.9%, suggesting no clear market inefficiency
No value picks versus market consensus reached the threshold, indicating the match-result odds broadly reflect the model's own assessment
W/D/L shown from Celta Vigo's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · CV | X | 2 · ALA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.16 | 3.48 | 3.78 |
| Matchbook | 2.22 | 3.25 | 3.75 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.20 | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.20 | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| Betfair | 2.22 | 3.20 | 3.75 |
| Coolbet | 2.15 | 3.38 | 3.70 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Celta Vigo host Alavés in a La Liga fixture where the betting market leans clearly toward the home side. At 2.06 with 1xBet, Celta are priced as favourites, implying a probability of roughly 49% for a home win, while Alavés at 4.11 suggest around 24% and the draw at 3.5 sits close to 29%. Those numbers point to a fixture the market sees as home-leaning but not one-sided, with a competitive gap still left for the draw or an away surprise. Away from the match-result market, our model's attention shifts to the goals market, flagging Over 2.25 goals at 1.85 with Pinnacle as the recommended angle. That price carries a model confidence of 52%, though the calculated value edge is slightly negative at -3.9%, meaning the market price is not obviously mispriced in bettors' favour.
Verdict: The data points to Celta Vigo as moderate favourites, with the draw and an Alavés upset both live possibilities given the pricing spread. The highlighted Over 2.25 goals bet at 1.85 is a reasonable consideration but carries a slight negative edge, so it should be treated as a measured, not high-confidence, selection.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 19:00 | Deportivo La Coruña v Levante | 2.18 | 3.62 | 3.75 |
| 17 Oct 12:00 | Espanyol v Atlético Madrid | 5.10 | 3.98 | 1.85 |
| 17 Oct 14:15 | Villarreal v Elche CF | 1.51 | 5.20 | 6.73 |
| 17 Oct 16:30 | Real Betis v Barcelona | 6.40 | 6.00 | 1.49 |
| 17 Oct 19:00 | Valencia v Athletic Bilbao | 3.65 | 3.51 | 2.28 |
| 18 Oct 12:00 | CA Osasuna v Real Racing Club de Santander | 2.08 | 3.75 | 3.95 |
| 18 Oct 16:30 | Málaga v Real Sociedad | 3.40 | 3.70 | 2.29 |
| 18 Oct 19:00 | Real Madrid v Sevilla | 1.30 | 7.00 | 11.50 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barça | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +27 | 24 |
| 2 | Atleti | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +10 | 19 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 19 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | +11 | 18 |
| 5 | Sevilla FC | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 14 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 | Alavés | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +4 | 11 |
| 8 | Deportivo | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 10 |
| 9 | Celta | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +2 | 8 |
| 10 | Athletic | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 8 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 | Getafe | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 | Santander | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 | Levante | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 19 | Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 20 | Málaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.25 goals at odds of 2.03, with a 48% confidence rating.
Celta Vigo are favourites according to the odds, priced at 2.06 with 1xBet, which implies close to a 49% win probability, compared to Alavés at 4.11.
The draw is priced at 3.5 with 1xBet, implying an approximate 29% probability, which keeps the outcome from looking one-sided despite Celta's favourite status.
No match-result value picks exceeded the threshold in this dataset. The model does highlight Over 2.25 goals at 1.85, though with a slightly negative value edge of -3.9%, so it is not a clear-cut value opportunity.
Celta Vigo vs Alavés takes place Sun · 14:15 in the La Liga.
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