La Liga · Sat · 16:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Villarreal are market favourites at 2.17, implying roughly a 46% win chance, noticeably ahead of Valencia's 29% at 3.5.
The draw is priced at 3.75, around 27% implied probability, keeping it a live but secondary outcome.
The combined implied probabilities exceed 100%, reflecting normal bookmaker margin rather than a true reading of chances.
The recommended Under 2.5 goals bet at 2.14 carries a -1.36% value edge versus the model's 46% confidence, meaning it is not flagged as a strong value play.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.3% | 8.86 |
| 1-2 | 9.0% | 11.14 |
| 0-1 | 8.3% | 12.11 |
| 2-1 | 7.7% | 12.95 |
| 1-0 | 7.1% | 14.08 |
| 0-2 | 6.6% | 15.22 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.37 and 1.59. These six scorelines cover 50% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia to win | 3.65 | +3.2% | 28% | 57 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
W/D/L shown from Valencia's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · VAL | X | 2 · VIL |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.45 | 3.78 | 2.17 |
| Unibet (SE) | 3.65 | 3.75 | 2.02 |
| Unibet (NL) | 3.65 | 3.75 | 2.02 |
| Marathon Bet | 3.36 | 3.68 | 2.11 |
| Pinnacle | 3.14 | 3.82 | 2.13 |
| Betsson | 3.15 | 3.70 | 2.12 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Valencia host Villarreal in a La Liga clash where the betting market leans clearly toward the visitors. Villarreal are priced at 2.17 with the best odds available, which implies a win probability of roughly 46%, the strongest single outcome on the board. Valencia, at 3.5, are given around a 29% chance, while the draw at 3.75 sits near 27%. Those numbers point to a moderately one-sided match on paper rather than a toss-up. Away from the result market, the site's model highlights Under 2.5 goals at 2.14 as its recommended angle, carrying an implied probability near 47% against the model's own 46% confidence reading. No outright value picks against market consensus cleared the threshold this week, so the focus here is squarely on the goals market rather than the 1X2 line.
Verdict: The data points to Villarreal as clear favourites without making the match a formality. The Under 2.5 goals selection at 2.14 aligns closely with model confidence but shows a slightly negative value edge, so it should be treated as a measured, not high-conviction, pick. Stake sizing should reflect that modest edge.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 19:00 | Deportivo La Coruña v Levante | 2.18 | 3.62 | 3.75 |
| 17 Oct 12:00 | Espanyol v Atlético Madrid | 5.10 | 3.98 | 1.85 |
| 17 Oct 14:15 | Villarreal v Elche CF | 1.51 | 5.20 | 6.73 |
| 17 Oct 16:30 | Real Betis v Barcelona | 6.40 | 6.00 | 1.49 |
| 17 Oct 19:00 | Valencia v Athletic Bilbao | 3.65 | 3.51 | 2.28 |
| 18 Oct 12:00 | CA Osasuna v Real Racing Club de Santander | 2.08 | 3.75 | 3.95 |
| 18 Oct 14:15 | Celta Vigo v Alavés | 2.22 | 3.48 | 3.78 |
| 18 Oct 16:30 | Málaga v Real Sociedad | 3.40 | 3.70 | 2.29 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barça | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +27 | 24 |
| 2 | Atleti | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +10 | 19 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 19 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | +11 | 18 |
| 5 | Sevilla FC | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 14 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 | Alavés | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +4 | 11 |
| 8 | Deportivo | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 10 |
| 9 | Celta | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +2 | 8 |
| 10 | Athletic | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 8 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 | Getafe | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 | Santander | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 | Levante | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 19 | Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 20 | Málaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.78, with a 55% confidence rating.
Villarreal are favourites based on the best available odds of 2.17, which implies around a 46% chance of victory, compared to Valencia's 29% at 3.5.
The best price on the draw is 3.75, which implies an approximate 27% probability of the match ending level.
No outright 1X2 value picks cleared the site's threshold for this match. The model's recommended bet, Under 2.5 goals at 2.14, shows a slightly negative value edge of -1.36%, so it is a reasonable but not standout opportunity.
Valencia vs Villarreal takes place Sat · 16:30 in the La Liga.
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