Ligue 1 · Sat · 18:45 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
RC Lens priced at 1.86 implies roughly a 54 percent win probability, the shortest price on the board.
Troyes at 4.32 imply around 23 percent, making them clear underdogs according to the market.
The draw at 4.06 sits at about 25 percent implied probability, not far behind Troyes' own chances.
The Over 3.0 goals line at 1.93 carries a -4.26 percent value edge against the model's 50 percent confidence, indicating the odds are slightly unfavourable relative to that estimate.
| Bookmaker | 1 · TRO | X | 2 · RL |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.30 | 4.04 | 1.87 |
| Coolbet | 4.00 | 4.20 | 1.85 |
| Betfair | 4.10 | 4.00 | 1.87 |
| Pinnacle | 4.06 | 4.04 | 1.85 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 4.10 | 4.00 | 1.85 |
| Unibet (SE) | 4.10 | 4.00 | 1.85 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Ligue 1 visitors RC Lens head to Troyes as clear market favourites, with the best price of 1.86 implying a win probability of roughly 54 percent. Troyes, at 4.32, are seen as outsiders with an implied chance of around 23 percent, while the draw at 4.06 sits close behind at about 25 percent. That spread points to a match the market expects Lens to control, though the draw price shows the gap isn't overwhelming. Away from the result market, our model highlights Over 3.0 goals at 1.93 as a point of interest, though it carries a modest negative value edge of -4.26 percent against the model's own 50 percent confidence line, meaning the price doesn't quite match the estimated probability. No side of the match-result market clears our value threshold, so this preview leans on probability context rather than a strong recommendation.
Verdict: The recommended Over 3.0 goals at 1.93 reflects a coin-flip-level probability estimate but comes with a small negative edge, so it should be treated as a moderate-risk selection rather than a strong-value play. With no result-market bets clearing the value threshold, bettors should size stakes conservatively and treat this as a data-informed option, not a certainty.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 18:45 | Le Mans FC v Toulouse | 3.20 | 3.65 | 2.41 |
| 17 Oct 15:15 | Strasbourg v Paris Saint Germain | 7.00 | 5.75 | 1.46 |
| 17 Oct 18:45 | Lille v Brest | 1.88 | 4.04 | 4.40 |
| 18 Oct 13:00 | Angers v Marseille | 3.40 | 3.85 | 2.20 |
| 18 Oct 15:15 | Le Havre v Auxerre | 2.52 | 3.55 | 3.10 |
| 18 Oct 15:15 | Lorient v AS Monaco | 3.95 | 3.60 | 2.10 |
| 18 Oct 15:15 | Paris FC v Rennes | 2.37 | 3.60 | 3.38 |
| 18 Oct 18:45 | Lyon v Nice | 1.71 | 4.26 | 5.25 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +5 | 14 |
| 2 | Lille | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 13 |
| 3 | Stade Rennais | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 13 |
| 4 | Olympique Lyon | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +7 | 11 |
| 5 | Paris FC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 11 |
| 6 | PSG | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 11 |
| 7 | Brest | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 8 |
| 8 | Lorient | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Nice | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | RC Lens | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 7 |
| 11 | Strasbourg | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Angers SCO | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Marseille | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 14 | Le Mans | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 | Troyes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 3.0 goals at odds of 1.92, with a 51% confidence rating.
RC Lens are favourites according to the odds, priced at 1.86, which implies roughly a 54 percent chance of winning.
The draw is priced at 4.06, which implies an approximate 25 percent probability.
No match-result selection clears the value threshold in this dataset; the closest recommendation is an Over 3.0 goals bet at 1.93, though it shows a slightly negative value edge of -4.26 percent.
Troyes vs RC Lens takes place Sat · 18:45 in the Ligue 1.
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