Ligue 1 · Sat · 18:45 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Lille's 1.72 price implies a win probability of roughly 58%, making them clear market favourites over Brest.
Brest's 5.13 price implies only about 19.5% chance of victory, reflecting a wide gap between the two sides in the eyes of the market.
The draw at 4.21 carries an implied probability of roughly 23.75%, positioning it as a moderately live alternative to a straight Lille win.
The recommended Under 2.75 goals bet at 1.81 carries a 53% implied confidence but shows a negative value edge of -4.32%, meaning the price does not clearly favour bettors versus the model's own estimate.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 11.9% | 8.39 |
| 1-1 | 11.0% | 9.12 |
| 2-0 | 10.7% | 9.39 |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | 10.20 |
| 0-0 | 6.7% | 14.99 |
| 3-0 | 6.3% | 15.77 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.79 and 0.92. These six scorelines cover 56% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Lille's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · LIL | X | 2 · BRE |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.86 | 4.04 | 4.36 |
| Betfair | 1.88 | 3.90 | 4.20 |
| Coolbet | 1.83 | 4.00 | 4.30 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.81 | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.81 | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.83 | 3.99 | 4.22 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Lille host Brest in a Ligue 1 fixture where the betting market leaves little doubt about the expected outcome. Best available prices make Lille strong favourites at 1.72, which implies a win probability of roughly 58%. Brest, at 5.13, are priced at around 19.5%, while the draw at 4.21 sits at about 23.75%. Together these figures point to a game the market expects Lille to control, though the draw remains a live possibility given its relatively short price. Away from the result market, our model's attention turns to the goals total, flagging Under 2.75 goals at 1.81 with a 53% implied confidence level. That said, the associated value edge is slightly negative, so this is presented as a data point for consideration rather than a standout opportunity. Bettors weighing options here should look at both the match-result prices and the goals market before deciding where, if anywhere, to place interest.
Verdict: The Under 2.75 goals selection at 1.81 reflects a 53% confidence level from the model, but its negative value edge suggests the market price is not offering a clear advantage. It is a reasonable talking point rather than a high-conviction play, and should be sized modestly with normal bankroll discipline in mind.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 18:45 | Le Mans FC v Toulouse | 3.20 | 3.65 | 2.41 |
| 17 Oct 15:15 | Strasbourg v Paris Saint Germain | 7.00 | 5.75 | 1.46 |
| 17 Oct 18:45 | Troyes v RC Lens | 4.30 | 4.20 | 1.87 |
| 18 Oct 13:00 | Angers v Marseille | 3.40 | 3.85 | 2.20 |
| 18 Oct 15:15 | Le Havre v Auxerre | 2.52 | 3.55 | 3.10 |
| 18 Oct 15:15 | Lorient v AS Monaco | 3.95 | 3.60 | 2.10 |
| 18 Oct 15:15 | Paris FC v Rennes | 2.37 | 3.60 | 3.38 |
| 18 Oct 18:45 | Lyon v Nice | 1.71 | 4.26 | 5.25 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +5 | 14 |
| 2 | Lille | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 13 |
| 3 | Stade Rennais | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 13 |
| 4 | Olympique Lyon | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +7 | 11 |
| 5 | Paris FC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 11 |
| 6 | PSG | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 11 |
| 7 | Brest | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 8 |
| 8 | Lorient | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Nice | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | RC Lens | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 7 |
| 11 | Strasbourg | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Angers SCO | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Marseille | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 14 | Le Mans | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 | Troyes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.75 goals at odds of 1.91, with a 51% confidence rating.
Lille are the clear favourites according to the odds, priced at 1.72, which implies close to a 58% chance of winning, compared with Brest's 5.13 (about 19.5%).
The draw is priced at 4.21 across best available odds, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 23.75%.
No value picks were flagged above the site's threshold for the match-result market. The model's Under 2.75 goals selection at 1.81 shows a slightly negative value edge of -4.32%, so it should be viewed with caution rather than as a strong edge play.
Lille vs Brest takes place Sat · 18:45 in the Ligue 1.
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