Ligue 1 · Sun · 18:45 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Lyon's 1.71 price implies about 58 percent win probability, comfortably the shortest of the three outcomes.
Nice's 5.29 odds imply only around 19 percent, reflecting the market's clear preference for the hosts.
The draw at 4.2 implies roughly 24 percent, making it a live secondary outcome despite Lyon's favouritism.
The model's recommended Lyon win carries a 4.08 percent value edge and 61 percent confidence, the only pick clearing the value threshold for this match.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 13.0% | 7.72 |
| 2-0 | 12.5% | 7.97 |
| 1-1 | 10.0% | 10.05 |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | 10.37 |
| 3-0 | 8.1% | 12.35 |
| 0-0 | 6.7% | 14.95 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.94 and 0.77. These six scorelines cover 60% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nice to win | 5.25 | +3.1% | 20% | 55 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
W/D/L shown from Lyon's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · LYO | X | 2 · NIC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.71 | 4.21 | 5.18 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.68 | 4.20 | 5.25 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.68 | 4.20 | 5.25 |
| Coolbet | 1.70 | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.67 | 4.26 | 4.95 |
| Pinnacle | 1.69 | 4.21 | 4.83 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Lyon host Nice in a Ligue 1 fixture where the betting market leaves little doubt about the favourite. Best available odds price Lyon at 1.71, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 58 percent, while Nice's 5.29 quote implies closer to 19 percent, and the draw at 4.2 sits around 24 percent. That gap between home win and the other two outcomes points to a fairly one-sided market view, though not an overwhelming one given the draw still carries a reasonable chance on paper. Our model aligns with the market's lean, tagging Lyon to win at 1.71 as the recommended bet, citing a 61 percent confidence level and a 4.08 percent value edge over the raw market price. No other selection on this fixture cleared our value threshold, so this remains the standout angle from the numbers available.
Verdict: Lyon are the clear market favourites against Nice, and the model's recommendation to back them at 1.71 lines up with a 61 percent confidence read and a modest value edge. It is not a heavily one-sided call, so some risk remains, and staking should be sized responsibly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 18:45 | Le Mans FC v Toulouse | 3.20 | 3.65 | 2.41 |
| 17 Oct 15:15 | Strasbourg v Paris Saint Germain | 7.00 | 5.75 | 1.46 |
| 17 Oct 18:45 | Lille v Brest | 1.88 | 4.04 | 4.40 |
| 17 Oct 18:45 | Troyes v RC Lens | 4.30 | 4.20 | 1.87 |
| 18 Oct 13:00 | Angers v Marseille | 3.40 | 3.85 | 2.20 |
| 18 Oct 15:15 | Le Havre v Auxerre | 2.52 | 3.55 | 3.10 |
| 18 Oct 15:15 | Lorient v AS Monaco | 3.95 | 3.60 | 2.10 |
| 18 Oct 15:15 | Paris FC v Rennes | 2.37 | 3.60 | 3.38 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +5 | 14 |
| 2 | Lille | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 13 |
| 3 | Stade Rennais | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 13 |
| 4 | Olympique Lyon | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +7 | 11 |
| 5 | Paris FC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 11 |
| 6 | PSG | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 11 |
| 7 | Brest | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 8 |
| 8 | Lorient | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Nice | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | RC Lens | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 7 |
| 11 | Strasbourg | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Angers SCO | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Marseille | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 14 | Le Mans | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 | Troyes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 2.75 goals at odds of 2.04, with a 48% confidence rating.
Lyon are the clear favourites according to the odds, priced at 1.71 which implies roughly a 58 percent chance of winning, compared to Nice's 5.29 price implying about 19 percent.
The best available draw price is 4.2 with Tipico, which implies an approximate 24 percent probability of the match ending level.
According to the model, backing Lyon to win at 1.71 offers a 4.08 percent value edge with 61 percent implied confidence; no other outcome on this match cleared the value threshold.
Lyon vs Nice takes place Sun · 18:45 in the Ligue 1.
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