Ligue 1 · Sun · 15:15 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Monaco's 2.06 price implies roughly 48.5% winning probability, positioning them as the clear market favourite over Lorient.
Lorient (3.85, ~26%) and the draw (3.72, ~26.9%) are priced almost identically, reflecting a tight market view of the non-favourite outcomes.
The combined implied probabilities sum to just over 101%, indicating a standard bookmaker margin rather than any unusual pricing distortion.
The recommended Over 2.75 goals bet at 1.93 carries a negative value edge of -4.26%, so it is presented as a balanced pick rather than a market inefficiency.
No value picks versus market consensus met the site's threshold for this fixture, meaning no side of the result market is flagged as clearly mispriced.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.5% | 8.67 |
| 2-1 | 8.5% | 11.72 |
| 1-2 | 8.2% | 12.14 |
| 1-0 | 8.1% | 12.38 |
| 0-1 | 7.8% | 12.82 |
| 2-2 | 6.1% | 16.42 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.48 and 1.43. These six scorelines cover 50% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Lorient's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · LOR | X | 2 · AM |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.87 | 3.58 | 2.10 |
| Betfair | 3.85 | 3.45 | 2.08 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 3.65 | 3.55 | 2.10 |
| Unibet (SE) | 3.65 | 3.55 | 2.10 |
| Coolbet | 3.90 | 3.45 | 2.05 |
| Pinnacle | 3.90 | 3.39 | 2.07 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Lorient host AS Monaco in a Ligue 1 clash where the betting market leans clearly toward the visitors. Monaco's best price of 2.06 translates to an implied probability of roughly 48.5%, making them the clear favourite on paper, while Lorient's 3.85 price implies around 26% and the draw at 3.72 sits close behind at about 26.9%. That tight gap between the draw and the home win suggests bookmakers see a competitive edge for Monaco without ruling out a stalemate. Away from the result market, our model flags Over 2.75 goals at 1.93 as its recommended angle, carrying a market-implied confidence of 50%. It's worth noting this pick shows a negative value edge of -4.26%, meaning the model doesn't see it as a genuine mispriced opportunity, just the most balanced option available given current pricing across both teams in this Ligue 1 fixture.
Verdict: The data points to Monaco as a moderate favourite, with the draw and Lorient priced closely together. The Over 2.75 goals recommendation is the standout note here, though its -4.26% edge signals it is not a strong value play, just a reasonably balanced option among available markets. Bettors should treat this as speculative rather than favoured, and stake accordingly within their bankroll limits.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 18:45 | Le Mans FC v Toulouse | 3.20 | 3.65 | 2.41 |
| 17 Oct 15:15 | Strasbourg v Paris Saint Germain | 7.00 | 5.75 | 1.46 |
| 17 Oct 18:45 | Lille v Brest | 1.88 | 4.04 | 4.40 |
| 17 Oct 18:45 | Troyes v RC Lens | 4.30 | 4.20 | 1.87 |
| 18 Oct 13:00 | Angers v Marseille | 3.40 | 3.85 | 2.20 |
| 18 Oct 15:15 | Le Havre v Auxerre | 2.52 | 3.55 | 3.10 |
| 18 Oct 15:15 | Paris FC v Rennes | 2.37 | 3.60 | 3.38 |
| 18 Oct 18:45 | Lyon v Nice | 1.71 | 4.26 | 5.25 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +5 | 14 |
| 2 | Lille | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 13 |
| 3 | Stade Rennais | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 13 |
| 4 | Olympique Lyon | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +7 | 11 |
| 5 | Paris FC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 11 |
| 6 | PSG | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 11 |
| 7 | Brest | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 8 |
| 8 | Lorient | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Nice | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | RC Lens | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 7 |
| 11 | Strasbourg | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Angers SCO | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Marseille | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 14 | Le Mans | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 | Troyes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.00, with a 50% confidence rating.
AS Monaco are favourites according to the odds, priced at 2.06, which implies a winning probability of roughly 48.5%, compared with Lorient's 3.85 (about 26%).
The draw is priced at 3.72, implying an approximate probability of 26.9%, which sits close to Lorient's own implied win probability.
No outright value picks against market consensus met the site's threshold for this fixture. The model's flagged bet, Over 2.75 goals at 1.93, actually shows a slightly negative edge of -4.26%, so it should be viewed as a balanced rather than a clear-value selection.
Lorient vs AS Monaco takes place Sun · 15:15 in the Ligue 1.
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