Ligue 1 · Sun · 15:15 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Le Havre are priced shortest at 2.54, giving them an implied win probability of about 39%, the highest of the three outcomes
Auxerre sit at 2.96 (around 34% implied), keeping the gap between favourite and second favourite relatively narrow
The draw at 3.54 implies roughly 28%, suggesting the market sees a reasonable chance of a stalemate
The Over 2.5 goals selection at 1.91 has a -1.12% value edge against the model's estimate, indicating the price is close to fair rather than a standout opportunity
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 13.4% | 7.47 |
| 1-1 | 13.4% | 7.47 |
| 0-0 | 11.6% | 8.64 |
| 0-1 | 11.6% | 8.64 |
| 2-0 | 7.7% | 12.92 |
| 2-1 | 7.7% | 12.92 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.16 and 1.00. These six scorelines cover 65% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Le Havre's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · LH | X | 2 · AUX |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.52 | 3.51 | 3.00 |
| Betfair | 2.40 | 3.50 | 3.10 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.43 | 3.55 | 3.00 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.43 | 3.55 | 3.00 |
| Coolbet | 2.40 | 3.40 | 3.10 |
| Pinnacle | 2.39 | 3.42 | 3.10 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Le Havre host Auxerre in a Ligue 1 fixture where the betting market gives a modest edge to the home side. Best-priced odds of 2.54 for Le Havre imply just over 39% probability, ahead of Auxerre at 2.96 (around 34%) and the draw at 3.54 (roughly 28%). Those numbers point to a fairly open contest rather than a one-sided affair, with no team priced as a heavy favourite. Away from the win market, the highlighted angle for this match is the goals line, with our model flagging Over 2.5 goals at 1.91 with William Hill. That price carries an implied confidence of 52%, though the calculated edge versus the model's own probability estimate is slightly negative, meaning it sits close to fair value rather than offering a clear market inefficiency. Bettors weighing up Le Havre versus Auxerre should treat this as a competitive match-up on paper.
Verdict: The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.91 reflects a roughly coin-flip market view on goal output, with a slight negative edge against the model's own estimate. It is not a strong value play but a reasonably balanced option; stake sizing should stay modest given the marginal edge and inherent match uncertainty.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 18:45 | Le Mans FC v Toulouse | 3.20 | 3.65 | 2.41 |
| 17 Oct 15:15 | Strasbourg v Paris Saint Germain | 7.00 | 5.75 | 1.46 |
| 17 Oct 18:45 | Lille v Brest | 1.88 | 4.04 | 4.40 |
| 17 Oct 18:45 | Troyes v RC Lens | 4.30 | 4.20 | 1.87 |
| 18 Oct 13:00 | Angers v Marseille | 3.40 | 3.85 | 2.20 |
| 18 Oct 15:15 | Lorient v AS Monaco | 3.95 | 3.60 | 2.10 |
| 18 Oct 15:15 | Paris FC v Rennes | 2.37 | 3.60 | 3.38 |
| 18 Oct 18:45 | Lyon v Nice | 1.71 | 4.26 | 5.25 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +5 | 14 |
| 2 | Lille | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 13 |
| 3 | Stade Rennais | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 13 |
| 4 | Olympique Lyon | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +7 | 11 |
| 5 | Paris FC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 11 |
| 6 | PSG | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 11 |
| 7 | Brest | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 8 |
| 8 | Lorient | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Nice | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | RC Lens | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 7 |
| 11 | Strasbourg | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Angers SCO | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Marseille | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 14 | Le Mans | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 | Troyes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.94, with a 51% confidence rating.
Le Havre are the market favourite at odds of 2.54, implying roughly 39% win probability, slightly ahead of Auxerre at 2.96 (about 34%).
The draw is priced at 3.54, which implies an approximate 28% chance according to the market.
No standout value picks against the match-result market were identified. The main flagged angle is Over 2.5 goals at 1.91, though its edge versus the model estimate is only marginally negative, so it is close to fair value rather than a clear edge.
Le Havre vs Auxerre takes place Sun · 15:15 in the Ligue 1.
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