Ligue 1 · Fri · 18:45 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Toulouse are outright favourites at 2.31, implying a win probability of about 43%, the highest of the three outcomes.
Le Mans FC's home price of 3.27 implies roughly 31% probability, keeping them within range of an upset rather than clear outsiders.
The draw at 3.62 implies around 28%, the smallest probability gap of the three prices, suggesting a fairly tight and competitive market.
The recommended Under 2.75 goals bet at 1.85 shows a model confidence of 52% against an implied 54% from the price, giving a negative edge of about 4.13%, and no match-result selections cleared the value threshold.
| Bookmaker | 1 · LMF | X | 2 · TOU |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 3.15 | 3.65 | 2.38 |
| 1xBet | 3.12 | 3.61 | 2.39 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 3.20 | 3.60 | 2.30 |
| Unibet (SE) | 3.20 | 3.60 | 2.30 |
| Pinnacle | 3.03 | 3.64 | 2.34 |
| Coolbet | 3.05 | 3.55 | 2.35 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Toulouse travel to face Le Mans FC in Ligue 1 as the clear market favourites, with the best price on offer at 2.31 implying a win probability of roughly 43%. Le Mans FC, at 3.27, sit closer to 31%, while the draw is priced at 3.62, translating to about 28% - the least backed outcome of the three, though not dramatically so given how tightly this fixture has been priced overall. That narrow gap between the draw and the home win points to a competitive contest, with Toulouse holding a moderate rather than overwhelming edge. Away from the match-result market, our model's attention shifts to goals, recommending Under 2.75 goals at 1.85 with Pinnacle. That price implies a bookmaker probability of about 54%, slightly ahead of the model's own 52% confidence, producing a negative edge of roughly 4%. No outright value picks against the match-result consensus met our threshold for this game.
Verdict: The standout angle is Under 2.75 goals at 1.85, but the model's own figures show a slight negative edge, meaning the price is marginally tighter than the estimated fair value. It reads as a low-conviction lean rather than a strong recommendation, with no match-result bets clearing the value bar.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct 15:15 | Strasbourg v Paris Saint Germain | 7.00 | 5.75 | 1.46 |
| 17 Oct 18:45 | Lille v Brest | 1.88 | 4.04 | 4.40 |
| 17 Oct 18:45 | Troyes v RC Lens | 4.30 | 4.20 | 1.87 |
| 18 Oct 13:00 | Angers v Marseille | 3.40 | 3.85 | 2.20 |
| 18 Oct 15:15 | Le Havre v Auxerre | 2.52 | 3.55 | 3.10 |
| 18 Oct 15:15 | Lorient v AS Monaco | 3.95 | 3.60 | 2.10 |
| 18 Oct 15:15 | Paris FC v Rennes | 2.37 | 3.60 | 3.38 |
| 18 Oct 18:45 | Lyon v Nice | 1.71 | 4.26 | 5.25 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +5 | 14 |
| 2 | Lille | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 13 |
| 3 | Stade Rennais | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 13 |
| 4 | Olympique Lyon | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +7 | 11 |
| 5 | Paris FC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 11 |
| 6 | PSG | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 11 |
| 7 | Brest | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 8 |
| 8 | Lorient | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Nice | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | RC Lens | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 7 |
| 11 | Strasbourg | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Angers SCO | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Marseille | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 14 | Le Mans | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 | Troyes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.75 goals at odds of 1.90, with a 51% confidence rating.
Toulouse are favourites at odds of 2.31, implying a win probability of about 43%, compared with Le Mans FC's 3.27, which implies around 31%.
The draw is available at 3.62, implying a probability of roughly 28%, making it the least likely of the three match outcomes according to current pricing.
No match-result selections cleared our value threshold. The only flagged angle is Under 2.75 goals at 1.85, though it carries a slightly negative edge of about 4.13% based on the model's own confidence level.
Le Mans FC vs Toulouse takes place Fri · 18:45 in the Ligue 1.
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