Ligue 1 · Sun · 13:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Marseille's 2.16 price implies roughly a 46% win probability, the strongest signal in the market for this fixture.
Angers at 3.45 implies about 29%, while the draw at 3.82 sits close behind at roughly 26%, keeping the draw a live outcome on paper.
The combined implied probabilities exceed 100% by around 1.5%, reflecting standard bookmaker margin rather than genuine mispricing.
The Over 3.0 goals recommendation carries a -4.28% value edge, meaning the model's 49% confidence is slightly below the 51% implied by its 1.95 price, so it is not a clear-cut value bet.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.3% | 8.10 |
| 0-1 | 10.6% | 9.45 |
| 1-2 | 9.0% | 11.15 |
| 1-0 | 8.5% | 11.76 |
| 0-2 | 7.7% | 13.02 |
| 0-0 | 7.3% | 13.74 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.17 and 1.45. These six scorelines cover 55% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Angers's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · ANG | X | 2 · MAR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.37 | 3.79 | 2.20 |
| Betfair | 3.40 | 3.80 | 2.14 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 3.35 | 3.80 | 2.15 |
| Unibet (SE) | 3.35 | 3.80 | 2.15 |
| Coolbet | 3.30 | 3.80 | 2.14 |
| Pinnacle | 3.39 | 3.80 | 2.10 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Marseille head to Angers as clear favourites in this Ligue 1 clash, with the best available match-result odds pricing them at 2.16 for the win. That translates to an implied probability of roughly 46%, noticeably ahead of Angers at 3.45 (around 29%) and the draw at 3.82 (about 26%). The gap between the two teams' prices points to a market that expects Marseille to control proceedings, though French top-flight matches often carry enough draw risk that backers shouldn't ignore the middle outcome entirely. Away from the result market, our model flags an alternative angle: Over 3.0 goals at 1.95, a line built around goal expectancy rather than who wins. That price implies a break-even probability near 51%, against the model's own estimate of 49% confidence, so it sits close to fair value rather than offering a clear edge. No standout value picks emerged versus the market consensus for this fixture.
Verdict: The recommended Over 3.0 goals bet at 1.95 is essentially a fair-to-slightly-unfavourable price rather than a value opportunity, given the -4.28% edge. It's a reasonable goals-market angle worth modest stakes at most, not a confident, high-value selection, and bettors should size accordingly and manage bankroll with care.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 18:45 | Le Mans FC v Toulouse | 3.20 | 3.65 | 2.41 |
| 17 Oct 15:15 | Strasbourg v Paris Saint Germain | 7.00 | 5.75 | 1.46 |
| 17 Oct 18:45 | Lille v Brest | 1.88 | 4.04 | 4.40 |
| 17 Oct 18:45 | Troyes v RC Lens | 4.30 | 4.20 | 1.87 |
| 18 Oct 15:15 | Le Havre v Auxerre | 2.52 | 3.55 | 3.10 |
| 18 Oct 15:15 | Lorient v AS Monaco | 3.95 | 3.60 | 2.10 |
| 18 Oct 15:15 | Paris FC v Rennes | 2.37 | 3.60 | 3.38 |
| 18 Oct 18:45 | Lyon v Nice | 1.71 | 4.26 | 5.25 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +5 | 14 |
| 2 | Lille | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 13 |
| 3 | Stade Rennais | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 13 |
| 4 | Olympique Lyon | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +7 | 11 |
| 5 | Paris FC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 11 |
| 6 | PSG | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 11 |
| 7 | Brest | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 8 |
| 8 | Lorient | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Nice | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | RC Lens | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 7 |
| 11 | Strasbourg | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Angers SCO | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Marseille | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 14 | Le Mans | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 | Troyes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 3.0 goals at odds of 2.03, with a 48% confidence rating.
Marseille are favourites according to the odds, priced at 2.16 which implies roughly a 46% chance of winning, compared with about 29% for Angers.
The draw is available at 3.82, which implies an approximate 26% probability, keeping it a realistic though secondary outcome behind a Marseille win.
No standout value picks were identified against the market consensus. The model's Over 3.0 goals suggestion at 1.95 shows a slightly negative edge of -4.28%, so it is close to fair value rather than a genuine edge.
Angers vs Marseille takes place Sun · 13:00 in the Ligue 1.
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